Warlords of Draenor Changes for F2P
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danny glover
Officially Retired
three + pages of arguing sf viability.
honestly, how many f2p rouges have access to sf?
honestly, how many f2p rouges have access to sf?
Hashbrowns
Legend
All, all have access to Shadowfang Keep lol
Crystalpall
the F2P PvEr
SF is Shadow Fang. SFK is shadowfang keep.
Hashbrowns
Legend
Right we all have access to SFK so we all then have access to SF. I think that's like the transitive property... SF is dropped from SFK, we have access to SFK so therefore QED we all have access to SF! But I'll leave the math properties up to my trusty doge of haste [MENTION=6328]Snowjobs[/MENTION]
Bop
Remember the Treeline
F(x) = 1 - X^N
Where X is the probability of it NOT dropping per run (2499/2500) and N is the number of attempts.
F(x) is the percentage chance of having seen SF drop after N runs.
So after 1601 runs in Shadowfang Keep, you'll have a ~47.30% chance of having seen a shadowfang drop
Oh and also, Shadowfang has a 1/10,000 per boss in Shadowfang Keep. There are 4 bosses, so the chance per Shadowfang Keep is 1/2500. The chance of it NOT dropping therefore is 2499/2500.
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Allybeboba
Legend
Actually the probability is exactly the same each and every time you run SFK. Your drop chances do not increase by the amount of runs. If it didn't did drop on run 1. You have the same chance that it will drop on run 50. It is all about RNG.
""First Law of Probability states that the results of one chance event have no effect on the results of subsequent chance events. "
I suggest massaging that lucky rabbit's foot if you really want Shadowfang to drop.
Good Luck!!
Sweetsidney...
""First Law of Probability states that the results of one chance event have no effect on the results of subsequent chance events. "
I suggest massaging that lucky rabbit's foot if you really want Shadowfang to drop.
Good Luck!!
Sweetsidney...
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lofi
Legend
Everything Bop said is correct. He is giving us a function to compute the probability of obtaining SF in x runs. Sure the probability is the same with each run, but if you run it 100x there's greater chance of dropping than running it just once. Notice that F(x) approaches 1 (or 100%) as x (number of runs) approaches infinity.
Bop
Remember the Treeline
The formula displayed above doesn't state that there is any sort of likelihood of seeing Shadowfang after X amounts of runs.
The formula is asymptotic, meaning that the result will never get to 100% - because you will never have a 100% chance of seeing Shadowfang after X number of runs.
Instead, it calculates the probability of Shadowfang dropping (the fractional percent chance per run) and raises it to the number of runs.
That number returned gives you the difference from 1 (representing 100%) as a decimal answer.
So all you're going to be measuring is the percent chance of having seen one drop.
You can neither argue that the formula is biased (as it is a simple numerical calculational) nor that it fails to take something into consideration such as linear probabilities (since it never claims to have a magic number of runs necessary to acquire Shadowfang).
I see what you're saying about linear probabilities. And people do often forget that their chance of getting SF after 1500 runs is the same as after 1 run. But that's not what this formula is designed to be about.
Dissention
Legend
Did they raise the level cap to 30? or was that a rumor?
Crystalpall
the F2P PvEr
oh hell no
Lil
SV huntard
it was never an argument before? It was someone who has common sense try to explain common sense to a math wiz. Now it is simply a math wiz explain math to a lesser math wiz. Never really been an argument as the correct answer is obvious
Björke
Legend
No one knows anything f2p specific until wod comes out. Clearly not their main priority to improve, announce or care about.
Crystalpall
the F2P PvEr
and thank god
Goesid
Twink Info Legend
F(x) = 1 - X^N
Where X is the probability of it NOT dropping per run (2499/2500) and N is the number of attempts.
F(x) is the percentage chance of having seen SF drop after N runs.
So after 1601 runs in Shadowfang Keep, you'll have a ~47.30% chance of having seen a shadowfang drop
Oh and also, Shadowfang has a 1/10,000 per boss in Shadowfang Keep. There are 4 bosses, so the chance per Shadowfang Keep is 1/2500. The chance of it NOT dropping therefore is 2499/2500.
There are 5 bosses and 1 rare boss fitting the criteria of being in the level 21-27 level range for a chance of being able to drop Shadowfang, 3 of them however were added post cataclysm and didn't have shadowfang added to the loottable thus making Baron Silverlaine, Commander Springvale and the Deathsworn Captain the only 3 mobs in the instance with the possibility to drop the sword.
Necrology Robe, Duskbring and Gloomshroud Armor are available from mobs inside SFK between the level range of 22-28 sadly however no mobs in the instance fit that criteria.
Bloodinhoo
Legend
heh, i wish.
Bop
Remember the Treeline
Good call about the Deathsworn Captain, that makes the chance 1999/2000, not 2499/2500 :O Miscalculated that.
I thought as long as the mobs were "boss" and also within the appropriate level ranges, they automatically had a chance at the SF drop. Is that not the case with Godfrey?
Daltert Moropi
Legend
Lol, ya get the ptws even more annoyed to raise thier ideal level, grind for new gear, and get used to the new macros.
That's not gonna happen til at least 3+ more expansions.
Goesid
Twink Info Legend
Godfrey, Walden and the first Baron were all added after cata so they don't have SF on their loot table. 2 bosses and a rare can drop drop it instead of 5 bosses and a rare making your chances of getting it go from pretty much impossible to not in this lifetime. I don't know why the new bosses haven't had the items added to their loot table, probably because it's trash drops and were intended as such but the old bosses still got 'em. Blizz logic I guess.