BORIS BREXIT THEORY
Credit goes to Reddit User FarawayFairways
"People like Boris supported Brexit because they never thought it would actually happen, and they were simply using it as a wedge issue to get votes from the right."
Your first bit is right, I'd be less convinced your second bit is
Boris Johnson, lest we forget, was a one time former Mayor of London, and has plenty of pro-European comments on the record as a consequence. For most conservatives, their position on Europe had been well advertised in advance. Any convicted 'leaver' would have been expected to declare their position from day one of the campaign. After all, they'd only had thirty years to think about it! Boris didn't however. Instead he spent a week trying to make his mind up. Why? Well the answer to that is that he didn't have a particularly strong view on the subject (not that unusual within the country incidentally) but did want to be leader of the party and Prime Minister. During the debates, Nicola Sturgeon suggested this, but sadly she failed to elaborate on it, and explain to the public what Boris was doing. Instead she used it as a soundbite that didn't necessarily make any sense. So this is the sequence of events
In February 2016, David Cameron made another stupid mistake when he unnecessarily told the BBC's James Landale that he wouldn't see a third term. Although he hinted he intended that he'd serve out his term, anyone with any grasp of politics knows this is untenable. He'd have had to stand down (probably this autumn). In effect therefore Cameron had just fired the starting pistol for a battle for the Prime Ministers job.
The key to understanding this involves understanding the mechanism that the conservative use for selecting their leaders. The parliamentary party (MP's) nominate potential leaders, who then compete against each other in a series of elimination rounds of voting. When they whittle this down to the final two, the choice is then put to the wider party membership (conservatives right across the country).
Boris was popular with the wider membership, and could conceivably win that vote, but his own colleagues (the MP's) knew him to be a buffoon and so he might struggle to make the last two and therefore never get the chance to contest the final round.
If 'Remain' were to win (as Boris expected) the then Chancellor (George Osborne) would be the obvious continuity Cameron candidate. Having presided over the recovery from the credit crunch, he would have been a lock to be one of the candidates going forward to the final vote. Boris needed to be the second, and probably wouldn't have the votes within parliament to pull it off. He'd be eliminated at the penultimate stage
Boris could probably account on not much more than 40 votes in his own right, and might be able to lever another 20 or so from marginal constituencies amongst MP's scared that they might lose their seat, and that his more dynamic campaigning style was their best chance of keeping their jobs. Basically however, sixty votes wouldn't be enough. He needed to find a 'bloc' within the party to support him. The conservatives have about 70-80 fairly die hard Eurosceptics. If Boris could appease these and become their standard bearer, he might be able to lever about 140 votes and come second to George Osborne in the parliamentary vote, and then seek to win the membership vote and become Prime Minister
So he figured they'd lose the referendum, he would be perceived to have played a 'good innings' and then in 18 months time he'd seek to capitalise on this goodwill and convert it into enough parliamentary support to allow him to launch a leadership bid.
The thing is, Boris screwed it up. He won the referendum. He couldn't even get this right! The whole bloody thing is an accident.
George Osborne stood down and left parliament altogether, and now Boris is left trying to reinvent himself as the arch Brexiteer.
He did of course try and become leader, but Michael Gove and the other 'genuine' Eurosceptic's scuppered him and he withdrew. They knew he wasn't really one of them. Sure they were happy to run with him for such time as he leant their campaign panache, but once it was over he'd served their purpose and they ditched him
If David Cameron hadn't told the BBC's James Landale that he was going to step down, Boris would have campaigned for 'remain' and the likelihood is that a leave vote fronted by such charismatic individuals as Gove, Fox, Duncan-Smith, Ledsom, and Stewart, would have lost
The whole thing is a complete cock up. Boris saw the crown and made a grab for it. The people didn't appreciate what he was trying to do, and now we are where we are