EU Chance for upgrade?

[Tfmatteson]

I posted to enter my input because I've actually done a decent ammount of testing this patch because I like to minmax my twinks so it felt like a worthwhile time investment for the long term. and the post i disputed had even lower % than me, he had it down to 1/400 aka 0,25 % for it to go from green to epic.

No I didn't. You just did napkin math and decided dropped items and quest items followed those rules. Tbh the person a few messages later even called out how that broke down to it likely being an even higher chance to go blue. So no not really, your just turning a 5% number I threw out into something more with my poor sample size. I just offered up my experience.

86 staves
16 blue
1 epic

So 20%~ (for the sake of easy numbers) went blue and of those 17 blues one of them went epic. So 1/20~

Honestly it feels like the green to blue chance is higher and the blue to epic chance is the 1/20 and i'd say that aligns pretty well with my experiences farming dropped epics and quest items. I had about 60~ pale skinners when I got an epic finally as well.

 

[Warglave]

So 20%~ (for the sake of easy numbers) went blue and of those 17 blues one of them went epic. So 1/20~

Are you saying that the chance to get epic from rare is comparable to the chance to get rare from green? Sensible.

 

[Zirano]

so if its green to epic its a 5% then another 5% roll to hit that

since it'd be 1/20 and then another 1/20 successful roll sort of deal for the epic to proc from rare.

I don't know if you forgot what you wrote yourself but if you know how to calculate probability then you would know that 1/20 into another 1/20 would be 1/400

 

[Tfmatteson]

I don't know if you forgot what you wrote yourself but if you know how to calculate probability then you would know that 1/20 into another 1/20 would be 1/400

Not sure what you want me to say, You clearly want to argue about the number I picked so you can have us all declare you as right, but i don't think your right. So I still stand by what I said, If you get 20 items to proc rare, within that 20 items one will proc epic. Go do whatever math you want but I'm not saying it's a 1/400 probability of it going epic, I'm saying every 20 rares you get, i expect one will continue and go epic. No percentages, feel better?

 

[Zirano]

Not sure what you want me to say, You clearly want to argue about the number I picked so you can have us all declare you as right, but i don't think your right. So I still stand by what I said, If you get 20 items to proc rare, within that 20 items one will proc epic. Go do whatever math you want but I'm not saying it's a 1/400 probability of it going epic, I'm saying every 20 rares you get, i expect one will continue and go epic. No percentages, feel better?

I'm reading your exact numbers? If you need 20 green staffs per blue staff, and then 20 blue staffs per epic then obviously that means you'd need 400 in total right? that's basic math using the numbers you said. I quoted YOUR numbers and just did the math.

 

[Warglave]

I'm reading your exact numbers?

86 staves
16 blue
1 epic

 

[Zirano]

so if its green to epic its a 5% then another 5% roll to hit that.

since it'd be 1/20 and then another 1/20 successful roll sort of deal for the epic to proc from rare.

 

[Tfmatteson]

I'm reading your exact numbers? If you need 20 green staffs per blue staff, and then 20 blue staffs per epic then obviously that means you'd need 400 in total right? that's basic math using the numbers you said. I quoted YOUR numbers and just did the math.

So the 1/20 to go green to rare is wrong. Like others have said in this thread...and that i agreed with. I even said that in the post I JUST made. I'm not going to keep discussing this though, it's a waste of time.

 

[Warglave]

He updated them to actual results because he's not being clear with his math, Zirano.

He didn't create new findings just to confirm them... Your confusion is expected.

 

[Zirano]

He updated them to actual results because he's not being clear with his math, Zirano.

He didn't create new findings just to confirm them... Your confusion is expected.

I like how you you're trying to take the high ground when the only "data" that you have mentioned is years old and you have not put in any effort on the current patch to actually find out. I have no reason to fabricate data, because I would gain nothing from it. I still stand firmly by my opinion that it's roughly 2 % to go from green to epic because everything I've done on this patch leads me towards that.

You know, after this discussion I really wish I did document everything properly. but i did not see any need to as I mainly was testing for myself so I knew what kinda time I would have to put in to make certain combinations of epics. But from now on I'll be sure to document everything with date stamps and pictures since apparently that's the effort you have to put in to post on this website :^]

 

[Warglave]

you have not put in any effort on the current patch to actually find out.

Sure I did. I did quite a bit of farming and questing, and clearly said it seems a lot like WoD and legion results. I dont need to track specific data if im just going to use it to validate a predetermined mindset. That's your job.

I've also offered up variables that could account for my conclusion feeling similar that don't support it. Possibilities.

I didn't grasp for reasons i'm right, I also considered possible situations where i'm not. Did you?

2% feels too low. That's my experience thus far. I see too many successful outcomes to support such a low rate.

5% epic seemed pretty accurate to me, for WoD content, legion content, and new low level content. I doubt it varies.

[doublepost=1555809360,1555809116][/doublepost]Simple question now... why is 3.5% impossible to you? Why does it HAVE to be 2%?

Because you decided that before you started? And once you found the right data to confirm it, claimed victory?

You literally cannot claim to have ruled out 3.5% with your minimal data. Why MUST it be 2%?
[doublepost=1555809980][/doublepost]

You know, after this discussion I really wish I did document everything properly. but i did not see any need to as I mainly was testing for myself so I knew what kinda time I would have to put in to make certain combinations of epics. But from now on I'll be sure to document everything with date stamps and pictures since apparently that's the effort you have to put in to post on this website :^]

Nah... just stick with "my friends agree with me" since it's much more your wheelhouse.

 

[Zirano]

Sure I did. I did quite a bit of farming and questing, and clearly said it seems a lot like WoD and legion results. I dont need to track specific data if im just going to use it to validate a predetermined mindset. That's your job.

I've also offered up variables that could account for my conclusion feeling similar that don't support it. Possibilities.

I didn't grasp for reasons i'm right, I also considered possible situations where i'm not. Did you?

2% feels too low. That's my experience thus far. I see too many successful outcomes to support such a low rate.

[doublepost=1555809360,1555809116][/doublepost]Simple question now... why is 3.5% impossible to you? Why does it HAVE to be 2%?

Because you decided that before you started? And once you found the right data to confirm it, claimed victory?

You literally cannot claim to have ruled out 3.5% with your minimal data. Why MUST it be 2%?

I've never said it can't be 3,5 % I simply said that 5 % seems way too high and everything I've done this far leads me to believe it's 2 %. It could be 3,5 %, which is why in my first post said

obviously I can't confirm this, but from what I've seen and heard from others it seems like the chance of green to epic is like 1/50 (2%) roughly. but there is no way of knowing for sure

And where I mentioned people that know me, I did not mean "yeah they will agree with me on the 2%" but more so that they could tell you that I have copied characters to the ptr, that I have made countless rogues and now hunters to try to proc spesific back to back epics.

 

[Warglave]

So then we both agree, your data doesn't really do anything worth noting. Your opinion is no better than mine or his.

There's almost no discernable difference between 2%, 5% or 3.5%. Especially when you're talking about 14 results.

Im glad for you that you managed results to confirm your bias to yourself, but that's all it is. Depending on where those 14 epics fell in your process, it's pretty likely all 3 were accurate for at least some period of time. That's the point.

If you did it again, the result are likely going to differ. And the way you did it, there's no reason to believe you anyway.

So yeah... i'll take someone's feeling over manufactured bias. Thanks tho.

edit- and it's very easy to see what Tfm was saying, regardless how he put it. That's your problem.

 

[Zirano]

So then we both agree, your data doesn't really do anything worth noting. Your opinion is no better than mine or his.

There's almost no discernable difference between 2%, 5% or 3.5%. Especially when you're talking about 14 results.

Im glad for you that you managed results to confirm your bias to yourself, but that's all it is. Depending on where those 14 epics fell in your process, it's pretty likely all 3 were accurate for at least some period of time. That's the point.

If you did it again, the result are likely going to differ. And the way you did it, there's no reason to believe you anyway.

Lol I agree with the fact that the data COULD be wrong, but one can only form opinions from the data one currently has access to.

 

[Warglave]

Your data is fine, it's your conclusion that's flawed.

See a trend? Of course not....

That's your problem.

 

[Zirano]

Your data is fine, it's your conclusion that's flawed.

See a trend? Of course not....

When in this Thread have I tried to enforce others to say it's 2 %, in my very first post I said that I could not confirm it and that nobody really could as blizzard wont disclose that information. but from what I have seen (what I've personally experienced) and what I've heard (what I've heard from my close friends, people I've talked to in gs/bg's/open world and also what I've read here on xpoff) it looks to be around 1/50 or 2 %.

The only reason I "disputed" what TFM wrote in his 2 first posts was because it was so out there compared to what everyone else had said. 1/20 to 1/50 like the 2 of us are discussing is not that far apart, but when we start talking about 1/400 like he initially did (without realising i guess) it's so left field.

I'd also like to add that if you, I and a bunch of other people went together and made a collective effort to collect data and we got for example 10 000 turn-ins and that came out to an average of for example 5 % then I would gladly say that it's probably 5 % because the current data that I then have shows it to be 5%, but currently the only data that I have personally leads me to believe its 2 % and only time will tell if I am correct or not.

 

[Warglave]

The only reason I "disputed" what TFM wrote in his 2 first posts was because it was so out there compared to what everyone else had said.

But it wasn't. What he said wasn't what he displayed, what he said was pretty clear. To me at least... look at my response.

On that page and this one. He just offered up the math wrong, when he showed his results, it was clear.

As to your results, they're your results. I've not had that poor luck as you, apparently. Looking at your chart, id rather see how long it took you to get 2 epics per item than just one. Or just 666 tries of the same one. Quest shouldn't matter, right?

We hope?

On that note, I dont believe I've ever gone 78 of anything without an epic proc. Be it farm, quest, or dungeon (WoD). The fact that your data relies on such wild stretches of failure to wind up at your 2% value just makes it all that more unimaginable.

I've had little trouble rerolling for a specific epic. I get the difficulty in getting your 2... what was your math there? Does that work the same way as the way you worked out Tfm's? 1/50 x 1/50? So 1/2500? Seems like you beat the curve....

but from what I have seen (what I've personally experienced) and what I've heard (what I've heard from my close friends, people I've talked to in gs/bg's/open world and also what I've read here on xpoff) it looks to be around 1/50 or 2 %.

And that's the flaw in your conclusion. You already had 2% before you ever documented anything, and confirmation bias of others that may or may not have done the work you did (likely not). How can anyone say it feels like 2%? I balk at even 5.

But no one is going to be able to tell the difference between the two without keeping track over a much longer experience.

Soooo... is 3.5% such a hard stretch? Is 5%?

 

[Zirano]

You already had 2% before you ever documented anything

But I didnt tho? as I've said countless times I just felt that there was no need to include the reasoning / spesific data in my initial post because OP only asked what the chance was.

If the thread was named "what's your experience with epic proc rates so far" I would've gladly written a wall of text.

 

[Warglave]

But I didnt tho? as I've said countless times I just felt that there was no need to include the reasoning / spesific data in my initial post because OP only asked what the chance was

But.... you said it was just like legion. And Wod.

edit- oh right. You and "your friends" said that just cuz I did. Almost forgot.

help me out, you may have missed the edit -

I've had little trouble rerolling for a specific epic. I get the difficulty in getting your 2... what was your math there? Does that work the same way as the way you worked out Tfm's? 1/50 x 1/50? So 1/2500? Seems like you beat the curve....

 

[Zirano]

But.... you said it was just like legion. And Wod.

edit- oh right. You and "your friends" said that just cuz I did. Almost forgot.

help me out, you may have missed the edit -

Well yeah if it's 1/50 then getting back to back epic would be 1/2500, and that's why I said I was extremely lucky while rerolling rogues.
[doublepost=1555818924,1555818891][/doublepost]

Soooo... is 3.5% such a hard stretch? Is 5%?

I'd also like to add that if you, I and a bunch of other people went together and made a collective effort to collect data and we got for example 10 000 turn-ins and that came out to an average of for example 5 % then I would gladly say that it's probably 5 % because the current data that I then have shows it to be 5%, but currently the only data that I have personally leads me to believe its 2 % and only time will tell if I am correct or not.