EU Chance for upgrade?

[Zirano]

And you don't seem to have any room for any opinion that's different from yours. Unsurprising.

Experience is always susceptible to bias, and you have quite the bias built up around you, to be sure. 2% seems very low for all the success stories, especially on given specific turn-ins. Always has too. Unfortunately, it gets tossed around quite a bit (for a couple expansions, shocker) and opinions generally tend to gravitate towards following the herd.

Negative reflection is always going to be more pronounced in any opinion, and you're not accounting for that. I'd love to see your spreadsheet of specific data over your 450+ PTR turn-ins, as well as date and time.... which you obviously kept. Right?

Information is always useful.

How are you showing any less bias tho? you havent moved an inch on your opinion either, and unlike you I ahve gone out of the way to actually test it on this patch, and I'm not only basing my opinion on experiences from previous expansion. and I do have a spreadsheat of my attempts that I did on ptr, I can get out of bed and turn on my desktop if you want to see it?

 

[Anonymousy]

Zirano wins

 

[Warglave]

How are you showing any less bias tho?

Because you adjusted the base for your opinion over and over, and mine was always about WoD, legion AND now.

You keep altering your reason to keep up with mine, while I simply stated it seems the same as previous expansions.

1/20 is so far off the mark compared to what I've experienced, idk what experience you have obviously. but I've done some pretty extensive testing on ptr by copying chars with quests ready to hand in, and when I did the tally I averaged around 48 chars pr epic, I've also done over 400 + rerolls on live to target epics.

Well my experience is not from doing 200 quests in random zones. my experience is from now 450+ chars on live targeting epics and proccing 14 epic items on ptr by copying chars with quests ready to be handed in.

First of all I'm not only basing it off my own experience either, It's also what I've heard from other people, read on this forum and such. and tbh I think I've had more quest rewards across the ptr and on live since this change than you had across all your chars in wod.

I mean, within this one month I've easily turned in over 1500 item rewards and leveling in wod you'd probably get 50-60 items. and tbh you were the one who started trying to undermine the testing I have done, and I've spoken to so many people questing and trying to figure out shit in this patch. and not lets forget I also played in wod, I also leveled 9 characters in that shitty expansion and had countless friends who maxed 10 + characters to stay afk in their garrisons.

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[doublepost=1555775350,1555775235][/doublepost]

5% epic seemed pretty accurate to me, for WoD content, legion content, and new low level content. I doubt it varies.

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[Zirano]

Because you adjusted the base for your opinion over and over, and mine was always about WoD, legion AND now.

You keep altering your reason to keep up with mine, while I simply stated it seems the same as previous expansions.

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[doublepost=1555775350,1555775235][/doublepost]

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Why would I not bring up my different experiences when you're trying to make it out be me doing 200 random quests and that's my experience. I started out by saying what I had experienced and tested in this patch and then you brought up wod and connections, so i further added to what I had experiences in previous expansions? How is this supposed to be an arguement, ofc you can bring up more information as the discussion goes forward.

I don't even understand how this is a real reply.

Edit: everything I've experienced, tested, read, heard has been a part of forming my opinion and what I believe is correct, I just simply didnt mention everything in my initial statement as I felt it was not needed.

 

[Warglave]

Why would I not bring up my different experiences when you're trying to make it out be me doing 200 random quests and that's my experience.

You gave your "data"... no one limited you to that. I gave my opinion after years of personal experience.

Suddenly all your past experience magically supported your position. If it did, why not include it originally, as I did?

Instead of magically pulling it out your ass afterwards in some transparently biased attempt at rebuttal? Your "sample size" just got larger and larger as you went... how convenient for you. Almost like you just made it fit your opinion.... still waiting on that spreadsheet documenting your PTR findings... because you did that, right? For all 450+ turn-ins?

Or are you still busy typing one up after the fact? Based on your argument, and not your data at all?

I'd love to see your spreadsheet of specific data over your 450+ PTR turn-ins, as well as date and time.... which you obviously kept. Right?

Information is always useful.

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[doublepost=1555779831,1555778825][/doublepost](edit- to help avoid your inevitable waste of reply, you decided to produce numbers and then pretty much tell everyone else they were wrong because of those numbers. I'm not saying you're wrong, i'm saying your sample isn't large enough to know. Artificially inflating it afterwards with bias doesn't change that. It's still just a small sample, not conclusive at all.)

 

[Zirano]

You gave your "data"... no one limited you to that. I gave my opinion after years of personal experience.

Suddenly all your past experience magically supported your position. If it did, why not include it originally, as I did?

Instead of magically pulling it out your ass afterwards in some transparently biased attempt at rebuttal? Your "sample size" just got larger and larger as you went... how convenient for you. Almost like you just made it fit your opinion.... still waiting.

Or are you still busy typing one up?
​

but I've done some pretty extensive testing on ptr by copying chars with quests ready to hand in

I did write in my initial statement about my testing on the ptr, i just didnt include the exact numbers as imo there was no need for me to include the exact numbers. The only thing i didnt add was that I played in Wod as I honestly didnt think it was as relevant and that my testing in this patch was extensive enough.

But ok from now on I'll be sure to type every piece of information exactly as I've experienced in my initial statements instead of adding to it as people bring up arguements, and you never asked for the spreadsheet. I asked if you wanted to see if but you never replied.

2 days before the patch hit I discovered that low level quests could upgrade similar to how wod/legion worked, so i decided I wanted to test what the chance of this was, so the following day (the day before the patch hit) I went to the cudgel of naralax quest chain and did the quests until I had the reward ready to hand in, I then hopped on to the ptr and copied around 10 characters at the time, Sadly this one I did not count but I would say roughly in the world of 50-60 characters.

Then the day of the patch I repeated the same process with Field tested spear, which took me 22 attempts. Then troughout my questing on my various 29's and 20's I repeated this process 12 more times to try to get a grasp of the probability. for all of these attempts I noted down the ammount of greens and blues I got before I got an epic proc.

Then I went on to grind for double epic, here as well i did not write down the exact ammount of attempts as I was going on and off for 3-4 days but I would say roughly in the ballpark of 300-350 attempts before I was able to proc double epic, which was extremely lucky. In these runs I got 8 epics from the first target quest.

On my hunter now I've currently done around 80-90 runs and I'm running 2 accounts at the same time so 160-180 attempts at the crossbow and I've had 3 epic crossbows so far.

About Wod I don't really remember spesifics the same way, but from what I can remember that usually going from 90-100 would grant me 1-2 epics procs. and talking to one of my friends who leveled way more characters than most, that was also his experience.

Don't know how to upload the excel document on here but here is a ss of it

(edit- to help avoid your inevitable waste of reply, you decided to produce numbers and then pretty much tell everyone else they were wrong because of those numbers. I'm not saying you're wrong, i'm saying your sample isn't large enough to know. Artificially inflating it afterwards with bias doesn't change that. It's still just a small sample, not conclusive at all.)

First of all I've never said "no you're wrong, I've simply said that it's so far from my own experience I can't believe it.
And also You have not provided any information or numbers at all to back up your statements, you've just said "countless characters on 2x max level accounts". You're not really adding anything other than some numbers that you've seem to have pulled out of nowhere as you have not provided anything to back it up other than wish wash.

 

[Warglave]

First of all I've never said "no you're wrong, I've simply said that it's so far from my own experience I can't believe it.

Fair enough. But isn't that the same thing? (thank you for the SS, appreciate it. earlier would have been better tho. )

And also You have not provided any information or numbers at all to back up your statements, you've just said "countless characters on 2x max level accounts". You're not really adding anything other than some numbers that you've seem to have pulled out of nowhere as you have not provided anything to back it up other than wish wash.

I didn't offer any numbers beyond saying it feels the same and I've felt it was always around 5%, that's the point.

You're trying to be conclusive-ish with such a small sample, then trying to support your offering after-the-fact with NO numbers (beyond your 9 characters, which is irrelevant.) You obviously don't have numbers from WoD, or legion... you really cant combine them effectively ----> without exposing bias. You want to use your PTR numbers? Sure. But then trying to adjust your findings after the fact by simulating my experience screams of adjusting your recollection just to suit your position.

I simply said this patch feels the same as WoD and Legion. No reason to think it's different - and 2% then seemed a bit low.

Still does.

I'm not going to bother dissecting the rest of your post, just this important part -

About Wod I don't really remember spesifics the same way, but from what I can remember that usually going from 90-100 would grant me 1-2 epics procs.

And you realize, that if you got 3-4 epics instead... that's around 5%? Assuming you're standing firm on yours being 2%?

The sample is SO SMALL that you cant define the difference between the two. Just how you feel it played out. Are you saying you never got more than 2? Seems unlikely. Got less than zero? Quite impossible. There's just not "enough" to base it on numbers... so any offered are hardly more than anecdotal. Like I replied on that originally:

You could do 450 more and get 50.

edit- touching on your 1-2 epics from 90-100, I definitely got more than 1-2 every time I leveled normally. Most of my legion reward experience tho, comes from doing all the zones for 98 or 99 twinking - where you needed to finish all 4 zones for the final reward, and any epic proc was very notable. (especially relic procs, which mattered sincerely)

But relics were often rare to begin with... are you saying you got 1-2 green to epic per character? Awful good memory...
(good discussion, thanks!)

 

[Zirano]

I didn't offer any numbers beyond saying it feels the same and I've felt it was always around 5%, that's the point.

But where do you get this 5 % from? it's obviously a number that you have produced yourself from your experiences as blizzard does not disclose that kind of information. So how is it any different from me saying its 2 %, you say 2% feels too low but from my experiences 5 % feel way too high.

The sample is SO SMALL that you cant define the difference between the two. Just how you feel it played out. Are you saying you never got more than 2? Seems unlikely. Got less than zero? Quite impossible. There's just not "enough" to base it on numbers... so any offered are hardly more than anecdotal

Well I probably did get more than 1-2 on some of my characters, but on my first character I did not actually get a single epic upgrade (this is extremely abnormal yeah, but worth pointing out). Another thing that is worth pointing out is that some of the epics you get are blue>epic upgrades rather than green>epic as well, it's not like every epic you get while leveling is green>epic. And since blizzard have not released the % chance of upgrades in Wod/legion/currently that means your findings are anecdotal as well because there is no way one person alone can produce accurate numbers, no matter how much they play.

 

[Warglave]

But where do you get this 5 % from? it's obviously a number that you have produced yourself from your experiences as blizzard does not disclose that kind of information. So how is it any different from me saying its 2 %, you say 2% feels too low but from my experiences 5 % feel way too high.

I'll answer with my own question - did you level using the dwarven bunker in WoD? The Legion order hall upgrade buff?

If you did, how can you compare those expansions? If you didn't... why the hell not?

I admitted earlier that those bonuses skewed my perception. Are you even factoring that into your recollection? Your current version of things years ago that you are trying to use to validate your opinion now? This seems like WoD and legion results to me, and most of my WoD and legion rewards were turned in under the doubling buffs provided by those options.... I didn't always use the dwarven bunker, but i'd still put the chance to like 3-4% without it. But 10% certainly seems too high, agreed.

The whole point is, if it feels like WoD and legion ---> did they just bake that buff in for the newer update?

For you to conclude 2% for the current patch would mean you never used those options for leveling, and that just seems unlikely. Or that you feel those expansions were only 1% chance... which seems far more unlikely.

But that's why I say 5%. Closer to the buffed reward chance than to saying it was only ever 1% for those years....

Another thing that is worth pointing out is that some of the epics you get are blue>epic upgrades rather than green>epic as well

Exactly. That's exactly what I just asked you.

Right there at the bottom.

Good job.

And then there's this...

That means your findings are anecdotal as well because there is no way one person alone can produce accurate numbers, no matter how much they play.

When you only last page said this...

I mean, within this one month I've easily turned in over 1500 item rewards and leveling in wod you'd probably get 50-60 items. and tbh you were the one who started trying to undermine the testing I have done, and I've spoken to so many people questing and trying to figure out shit in this patch. and not lets forget I also played in wod, I also leveled 9 characters in that shitty expansion and had countless friends who maxed 10 + characters to stay afk in their garrisons.

You're making a lot of assumptions here bossman about how "little" I've played

So um.....
:Seriously?:​

 

[Zirano]

For you to conclude 2% for the current patch would mean you never used those options for leveling, and that just seems unlikely. Or that you feel those expansions were only 1% chance... which seems far more unlikely.

But that's why I say 5%. Closer to the buffed reward chance than to saying it was only ever 1% for those years....

Well the thing is I didnt use any of those things, i didnt upgrade my garrison at all outside of what was needed for the actual quests.

Exactly. That's exactly what I just asked you.

Right there at the bottom.

Well you edited the question in afterwards, because that was not in the first "draft" of your reply. hard to me to reply to something that wasnt there when i read the reply lol, don't you agree?

And then there's this...
When you only last page said this...

Yeah but then there is no point in discussing this at all since nobody can "prove" what is right or wrong. I was just pointing out that what you said works as a counterarguement to your own findings.

 

[Warglave]

Well you edited the question in afterwards, because that was not in the first "draft" of your reply.

Did it take you like 15 minutes to type that response? The timestamp is right at the bottom of my post...

Yeah but then there is no point in discussing this at all since nobody can "prove" what is right or wrong.

Now you're getting it.... congratulations.

Well the thing is I didnt use any of those things, i didnt upgrade my garrison at all outside of what was needed for the actual quests.

Wtf was needed for quests? That was "for quests"...

And you didn't upgrade your order hall at all in legion? Really?

 

[Zirano]

Did it take you like 15 minutes to type that response? The timestamp is right at the bottom of my post...



Now you're getting it.... congratulations.

Nah I clicked on the alert, read it, then I tabbed out to finish my quest run and then I opened it again without refreshing lol.

Why did you even bother posting a reply then if you're opinion from the very first moment was that there is no point discussing it because no amount of evidence is enough.

 

[Warglave]

I posted my opinion on how it felt to me.

You posted numbers trying to validate yours, and invalidate someone else.

Why did you post?

 

[Zirano]

I posted my opinion on how it felt to me.

You posted numbers trying to validate yours, and invalidate someone else.

Why did you post?

I posted to enter my input because I've actually done a decent ammount of testing this patch because I like to minmax my twinks so it felt like a worthwhile time investment for the long term. and the post i disputed had even lower % than me, he had it down to 1/400 aka 0,25 % for it to go from green to epic.

 

[Warglave]

because I've actually done a decent ammount of testing

Yeah, but.... is it tho?

 

[Zirano]

Yeah, but.... is it tho?

Okay so you wanted everyone that read this thread to write "fuck you OP, don't ask pointless questions that nobody can prove"?
Or can people that have at least done some testing and actually bothered trying to boil it down (even tho it might not be correct) give their input so OP can get a grasp of the situation?

Let me ask you this then, if you had no clue how the upgrade system worked and you had no previous experience with it. Would you rather have the advice of someone who said "I did 200 quest in x zones and got 1 epic", not even accounting for the fact that 3/4 of those quests does not yield any items, so therefor there can be no upgrade either.
Or someone that took the time out of their day to copy multiple characters over to the ptr to try to get a better understanding of the chance. and someone that is among the few who have made countless rerolls to try to get certain target epics.

But you will probably hit me up with the big "neither" because you're now biased towards me

 

[Druiddroid]

Yeah, but.... is it tho?

Yes.

There can also be more testing done to prove or disprove the 2% hypothesis proposed by Zirano. Over time, we can eventually do enough tests that we will have a reliable conclusion.

 

[Warglave]

Would you rather have the advice of someone who said "I did 200 quest in x zones and got 1 epic", not even accounting for the fact that 3/4 of those quests does not yield any items, so therefor there can be no upgrade either.
Or someone that took the time out of their day to copy multiple characters over to the ptr to try to get a better understanding of the chance.

I noted very specifically that point about the zones not being as relevant ---> it was MY point. So... what do you think?

Entire premise being that your data isn't definitive either. Fluctuating your "sources" like you do invalidates it even more... like you're searching for (manufacturing) things to support your data instead of just stating your opinion and moving on.

Id rather have someone state how it feels over using bias to "remember" coincidental reference just to validate numbers.

There can also be more testing done to prove or disprove the 2% hypothesis proposed by Zirano.

Sure... but not the way he's doing it. All he has now are a bunch of numbers thats as likely made up as is accurate.

Small samples don't invalidate anything but wildly outrageous conjecture... and hardly even that. Arguing a few % isn't really worth making up facts to support yourself, or poorly producing mildly accurate ones. The result is the same.

Did you note the point I made about his legion leveling recollection of 1-2 epics? That 3-4 epics totally supported me instead? Its kind of the whole point... biased, unsupported, fluctuating recollection isn't good confirmation of anything.

Just a few different rolls and he's right in my feeling. So what use was the "data"? When just a bit of RNG could nullify it?

 

[Zirano]

Entire premise being that your data isn't definitive either. Fluctuating your "sources" like you do invalidates it even more... like you're searching for (manufacturing) things to support your data instead of just stating your opinion and moving on.

But the thing is, people that I know can validate that I have done the things I have done, most of the time I've spent testing I've also been speaking to my friends in the community on discord and such. And I have not changed my "sources", in my initial statement I didnt include all the numbers because it didnt seem needed for me to include spesifics. then the point about me playing wod was because you mentioned that you had played countless characters in wod. And I took it for granted that you understood that my opinion was not only based on my own experience but also from what I've heard from all my friends who play lvl 20/29 and I speak to on the daily. but you didnt so I simply included that as well.

 

[Warglave]

But the thing is, people that I know can validate that I have done the things I have done

You mean the ones that agree with you? How convenient. Almost.... confirmation bias. Weird.

Try getting your information to speak for itself and not using the herd to justify a finding. Does someone getting 50 epic procs in the same amount of turn-ins disprove you? How about zero? Until all that is done, "my friends agree" isn't really fact.

edit- I mean who is to say it isn't 3.5%? Isnt that possible? To be exactly between both of us? What good is your "data" then?