Weather Beaten Fishing hat?

Donniedarkõ said:
Well one of the main thing, is that if it was a flat droprate like 1% or .5% even there would be a winner instantly at 14:01, almost 90% of the time, yet I have never seen anybody winning during the first 4 minutes, did you ? probably not either. This is maths, a 9 graders can understand, no theorys...From theses maths you can deduce 2 things, first thing is that you can fish all day long from 14.00 to 14.02 or 03, the shark probably can't drop there, I think Blizzard made it that way so that the contest doesn't last one minute or so...it's just an useless illusion...

It also proove from there, that there is a hidden crazy rule to loot that shark, everything you can imagine except a flat percentage droprate... as I said probably linked to the population of the realm. Because how can a low pop server catch the shark if it has the same ridiculous percentage of droprate than a high pop server ? It can't... And I have seen a low pop server winning 2 times in a row before a high pop server... and every other time before 14:10



There is no theorys, all maths. My point being, there is no % of droprate, there is a hidden crazy rule that only Blizzard knows, it could even be "hand in a shark randomly to anybody catching their next fish every 5minutes", take your pick... it would still proove a low pop server is the best chance for a twink to get that hat, and by more than just avoiding ganking, by far. Period.
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I think It has something to do with getting a certain amt of pygmy suckerfish. After 5 mins into the contest the blacktip shark becomes a very low drop rate for those who have fished that certain amount of pygmy suckerfish. Just another theory though
 
Secclusion said:
I think It has something to do with getting a certain amt of pygmy suckerfish. After 5 mins into the contest the blacktip shark becomes a very low drop rate for those who have fished that certain amount of pygmy suckerfish. Just another theory though
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In RuneScape, the chance of getting a Draconic Visage from a dragon is based on a "wheel of fortune," wherever the wheel stops is the drop you get, and the wheel "spins" at a different pace each time, so it doesn't follow the % drop rate idea. Maybe it's the same for the shark?



(Yes, I do play RuneScape, so laugh all you want.)
 
notoriousthf said:
In RuneScape, the chance of getting a Draconic Visage from a dragon is based on a "wheel of fortune," wherever the wheel stops is the drop you get, and the wheel "spins" at a different pace each time, so it doesn't follow the % drop rate idea. Maybe it's the same for the shark?



(Yes, I do play RuneScape, so laugh all you want.)
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Draconic visage divided by total amt of positions on the wheel = %drop rate x 100



and if the wheel can't hit the same position twice it only helps the drop rate...not gonna write a formula for that but its still a drop rate.
 
Secclusion said:
Draconic visage divided by total amt of positions on the wheel = %drop rate x 100



and if the wheel can't hit the same position twice it only helps the drop rate...not gonna write a formula for that but its still a drop rate.
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That's what's weird.



On a 24 hr dragonkilling on iron/steel dragons, my partner got 2 consecutive visages within the first hour, and 3 on the last four hours.



Within a week, you should at least have 2 draconic visages if using the drop rate formula.



Within three weeks, 14 hours a day, I didn't get a single visage.
 
people who think that going long spans of time without getting something to drop means that it has no % drop rate need to take a statistics class.
 
It has nothing to do with statistics. This is more RNGed than just low rate.



The visage does not follow the drop rate formula. It follows a completely different RNG.

This was confirmed in the RS forums by one of the Jagex Mods.

That's why the visage drops as a secondary item. So it won't be on the same drop rate idea as other drops.
 
notoriousthf said:
It has nothing to do with statistics. This is more RNGed than just low rate.



The visage does not follow the drop rate formula. It follows a completely different RNG.

This was confirmed in the RS forums by one of the Jagex Mods.

That's why the visage drops as a secondary item. So it won't be on the same drop rate idea as other drops.
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Fact remains though - a drop chance can be calculated. No matter how many numbers you generate or how much mathematical calculations you add to it. The only thing you can do is make drop rates progressive or based on factors such as time, wealth, levels, etc.



Random is random though. RNG means a random number is generated which decides whether that Visage drops on your dragon or not. If you /roll 1-100 you have 1% chance for it to be 1, 1% to be 2, and so on.



My point being: chances are chances, they can be calculated. You can't make software that gives out "special" random numbers. Maths has it's rules. You make the rules and no system in the world is going to be all mysterious with outcomes.
 
timmy and jimmy are playing with dice. timmy rolls the dice and gets a 5 + 6, jimmy rolls the dice and gets 3 + 4. timmy then rolls the dice and gets a 5 + 6... what are the chances of that? :eek:... wow is RNG.. the rate of which the shark will drop is random. somebody could get 5 in a row. someone could never get any.. its random luck.
 
Mists said:
what are the chances of that?
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If you consider 5+6 the same roll as 6+5 then it's

1 in 5.832

If you consider them different rolls, maybe you're using colored dice and want something like "red Dice 6 and blue Dice 5", then it's

1 in 46.656
 
notoriousthf said:
That's what's weird.



On a 24 hr dragonkilling on iron/steel dragons, my partner got 2 consecutive visages within the first hour, and 3 on the last four hours.



Within a week, you should at least have 2 draconic visages if using the drop rate formula.



Within three weeks, 14 hours a day, I didn't get a single visage.
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I don't know a thing about runescape, but I sincerely hope that was botted and not done manually >_>
 
notoriousthf said:
Nope, it was all manually. I had free time. My partner kept telling me to just give up. And I don't even know how to bot.
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That's pretty no-life. No offense.
 
Luhar said:
But blogging about 19 twinking is the epitome of cool kid.
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A blog takes a few hours a week to put together. I'd much rather spend those few hours thinking about 19 twinks than playing Runescape. Keep trying.
 
Sanitarium said:
A blog takes a few hours a week to put together. I'd much rather spend those few hours thinking about 19 twinks than playing Runescape. Keep trying.
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Umm. Why? RuneScape is so interactive
 
Yo, I'm botting runescape, some dude gave me his selfdeveloped botscript. And since we're only a handful of people using it, we're sorta safe from the banhammer :p
 
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