Twinkiwinki
Legend
For example if a mount from a boss would have 1% drop chance, wouldnt it in theory be 2% if i kill the boss twice?
(Just an example) or am i all wrong here?
(Just an example) or am i all wrong here?
Every1 open up a ticket
- Thread starter Curley
- Start date
lindenkron
OG
Ishh said:Care to elaborate? I was/am pretty confident
It's true in the mathematical sense (Probability) - However percentages do not act towards the laws of 'probability' - But the laws of chance.
Fishing hat currently have something along the lines of 0.25% chance of dropping each time fished.
Source
This means it should - take according to % - 400 fish to get one fishing hat.
I fished an average of 150 fish (100-200) on my paladin every Sunday for 9 months.
That's approximately 5400 fish caught.
Now, adding the chance of every pool being a Keefers Anglefish, blizzard should owe me 13 fishing hats (the 14th~ being the one currently on my head)
However, even after fishing in the pool the first time the chance of it _NOT_ being a Keefer's Angelfish the next time is not reduced. It doesn't go 99.75% chance of not - 99.50% chance of not - 99.25% chance of not. (Unfortunately)
So in theory, you could do it indefinitely and never get your Weather Beaten Fishing hat (Or Lucky Fishing hat for that matter). We still have guys in our guild that are fighting with getting that hat after a year. - I recall Bláckóut taking 1 year to get fishing boots, even though everyone was drowning in them elsewhere.
Hope this made sense
Best regards,
Ishh
OG
Evade said:
I didn't add up though. I figured this formula would give the correct number:
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
x: the drop rate percentage
y: total number of dailies done
1 day: 1 - ( ( 1 - 1% ) ^ 5 )
60 days: 1 - ( ( 1 - 1% ) ^ 300 )
I never took a probability course, but I'd imagine this is a correct way to calculate a drop chance within a certain timeframe.
Twinkiwinki
Legend
Evade said:
Yeah but in theory it would be 2% for 2 kills aight? or is that totally wrong aswell?
Ishh
OG
lindenkron said:It's true in the mathematical sense - However percentages do not act towards the laws of 'chance probability'.
Fishing hat currently have something along the lines of 0.25% chance of dropping each time fished. Source
This means it should - take according to % - 400 fish to get one fishing hat.
I fished an average of 150 fish (100-200) on my paladin every Sunday for 9 months.
That's approximately 5400 fish caught.
Now, adding the chance of every pool being a Keefers Anglefish, blizzard should owe me 13 fishing hats (the 14th~ being the one currently on my head)
However, even after fishing in the pool the first time the chance of it _NOT_ being a Keefer's Angelfish the next time is not reduced. It doesn't go 99.75% chance of not - 99.50% chance of not - 99.25% chance of not. (Unfortunately)
So in theory, you could do it indefinitely and never get your Weather Beaten Fishing hat (Or Lucky Fishing hat for that matter). We still have guys in our guild that are fighting with getting that hat after a rogue. - I recall Bláckóut taking 1 year to get fishing boots, even though everyone was drowning in them elsewhere.
Hope this made sense
Best regards,
It makes sense, and I took that into account in my formula. I still don't see how it's incorrect
Trespasser
OG
Ishh calculation is perfect.
The formula is very simple.
You know it has a 1% drop chance so the chance of not getting it is 0.99
Now if there are 5 daily's it becomes 0.99 ^ 5 = 0.9509 So that's a 95.09% chance of not getting it so a 4.91% of it dropping like Ishh said.
If you want to know if for 60days like ishh did it's 0.99 ^ ( 60 * 5 ) = 0.99 ^ 300 = 0.049 chance of not getting it so a 95.1% chance of getting it.
For a 99% chance of getting it you would have to do log(0.01) / log(0.99)=458.2 daily's or 92 days.
For a 100% chance of getting it you would have to run it a infinite amount of times.
The formula is very simple.
You know it has a 1% drop chance so the chance of not getting it is 0.99
Now if there are 5 daily's it becomes 0.99 ^ 5 = 0.9509 So that's a 95.09% chance of not getting it so a 4.91% of it dropping like Ishh said.
If you want to know if for 60days like ishh did it's 0.99 ^ ( 60 * 5 ) = 0.99 ^ 300 = 0.049 chance of not getting it so a 95.1% chance of getting it.
For a 99% chance of getting it you would have to do log(0.01) / log(0.99)=458.2 daily's or 92 days.
For a 100% chance of getting it you would have to run it a infinite amount of times.
Bankbeauty
OG
Pizza said:
Seriously, are you guys still crying about level 10 resil? Even when the max damage reduction we can get is 60% and Loss shitloads of stats for doing so? I understand crying over 95% Damage reduction but now.. I'm getting kill in under 5 sec vs any high damage class like Druid, Rogue, Hunter, Warrior, Paladin Ret, so don't tell me Resil is still a problem.
Duckhunt
OG
lindenkron said:It's true in the mathematical sense (Probability) - However percentages do not act towards the laws of 'probability' - But the laws of chance.
Fishing hat currently have something along the lines of 0.25% chance of dropping each time fished. Source
This means it should - take according to % - 400 fish to get one fishing hat.
I fished an average of 150 fish (100-200) on my paladin every Sunday for 9 months.
That's approximately 5400 fish caught.
Now, adding the chance of every pool being a Keefers Anglefish, blizzard should owe me 13 fishing hats (the 14th~ being the one currently on my head)
However, even after fishing in the pool the first time the chance of it _NOT_ being a Keefer's Angelfish the next time is not reduced. It doesn't go 99.75% chance of not - 99.50% chance of not - 99.25% chance of not. (Unfortunately)
So in theory, you could do it indefinitely and never get your Weather Beaten Fishing hat (Or Lucky Fishing hat for that matter). We still have guys in our guild that are fighting with getting that hat after a year. - I recall Bláckóut taking 1 year to get fishing boots, even though everyone was drowning in them elsewhere.
Hope this made sense
Best regards,
This is exactly what I was thinking, sorry I didn't reply sooner. Thanks Lind.
sometwink said:
No, thats not quite how it works. Imagine that you had a bag with 100 marbles, 50 of which are red, 50 of which are blue. You obviously have a 50/50 chance of each. If you take two marbles out however hoping to get a red you do not have a 100% chance simply because you picked 2 and 2x50=100. The chance of getting at least one red is infact 75%
The best way to add up the probabilities in this situation (WBFH i mean) is to find the probablity of it not being dropped (0.99) and rasing it to the power n, n being the number of times you complete a daily. So if you complete 5 dailies every day you have a 1-0.99^5 chance of it dropping everyday. This is 4.901% chance of getting it a day, or a 29.6% chance of getting it per week
29.6% is higher chance per week of getting LFH. Assuming you get 100 fish per week in STV fishing comp you would only have a 22.1% chance.
Stabbedurazz
OG
the probability can never be added up, say you flip a coin, 50% chance for heads or tails. You could get tails every time over and over and over again because of the fact that every coin toss is a 50% chance no matter what way you look at it. If you have a spinner with the numbers 1-10 and you want a 1 than you would have a 10% chance to get that one. Rolling 10 times does not guarentee a one in any sense as you can not add probability like that. Its 10% every roll its not 10+10 = 20% on roll 2 because you could still get what ever number you rolled last time and there are still 10 numbers to choose from.
lindenkron
OG
I'm pretty sure we nailed the explanation for this guys. GJ though!
So to boil it down; regardless of %(unless 100%) you could possibly never get it. But the probability(chance that you get it) of getting it increases the higher the drop % is.
Best regards,
So to boil it down; regardless of %(unless 100%) you could possibly never get it. But the probability(chance that you get it) of getting it increases the higher the drop % is.
Best regards,