Twinkiwinki
Legend
For example if a mount from a boss would have 1% drop chance, wouldnt it in theory be 2% if i kill the boss twice?
(Just an example) or am i all wrong here?
(Just an example) or am i all wrong here?
Twinkiwinki said:For example if a mount from a boss would have 1% drop chance, wouldnt it in theory be 2% if i kill the boss twice?
(Just an example) or am i all wrong here?
Twinkiwinki said:For example if a mount from a boss would have 1% drop chance, wouldnt it in theory be 2% if i kill the boss twice?
(Just an example) or am i all wrong here?
Ishh said:Care to elaborate? I was/am pretty confident
Source0.25% Keefer's Angelfish --> Lucky Fishing Hat
Evade said:proper way is to multiply it, not just add it up, not sure how you did it. cba figuring it myself
Evade said:no. because theoretically if you killed the boss 100 times you would be guaranteed a drop, which isn't the case. I suck major ass at math however, so i'm not gonna even try to explain it in full
lindenkron said:It's true in the mathematical sense - However percentages do not act towards the laws of 'chance probability'.
Fishing hat currently have something along the lines of 0.25% chance of dropping each time fished. Source
This means it should - take according to % - 400 fish to get one fishing hat.
I fished an average of 150 fish (100-200) on my paladin every Sunday for 9 months.
That's approximately 5400 fish caught.
Now, adding the chance of every pool being a Keefers Anglefish, blizzard should owe me 13 fishing hats (the 14th~ being the one currently on my head)
However, even after fishing in the pool the first time the chance of it _NOT_ being a Keefer's Angelfish the next time is not reduced. It doesn't go 99.75% chance of not - 99.50% chance of not - 99.25% chance of not. (Unfortunately)
So in theory, you could do it indefinitely and never get your Weather Beaten Fishing hat (Or Lucky Fishing hat for that matter). We still have guys in our guild that are fighting with getting that hat after a rogue. - I recall Bláckóut taking 1 year to get fishing boots, even though everyone was drowning in them elsewhere.
Hope this made sense
Best regards,
Twinkiwinki said:Yeah but in theory it would be 2% for 2 kills aight? or is that totally wrong aswell?
Twinkiwinki said:Yeah but in theory it would be 2% for 2 kills aight? or is that totally wrong aswell?
Pizza said:I would rather make forum post and open up tickets regarding the problem with low level resilience.
Trespasser said:Ishh calculation is perfect.
The formula is very simple.
You know it has a 1% drop chance so the chance of not getting it is 0.99
Now if there are 5 daily's it becomes 0.99 ^ 5 = 0.9509 So that's a 95.09% chance of not getting it so a 4.91% of it dropping like Ishh said.
If you want to know if for 60days like ishh did it's 0.99 ^ ( 60 * 5 ) = 0.99 ^ 300 = 0.049 chance of not getting it so a 95.1% chance of getting it.
For a 99% chance of getting it you would have to do log(0.01) / log(0.99)=458.2 daily's or 92 days.
For a 100% chance of getting it you would have to run it a infinite amount of times.
if you have a 1 % chance per daily to get it and 5 quests per day is that not a 5% chance to get it per day? then a 45% chance per week if you do every daily?
examinerEU said:Moves moved above the 19 section causing playstyles to be 2 hit HURPDURP caveman style fighting
lindenkron said:It's true in the mathematical sense (Probability) - However percentages do not act towards the laws of 'probability' - But the laws of chance.
Fishing hat currently have something along the lines of 0.25% chance of dropping each time fished. Source
This means it should - take according to % - 400 fish to get one fishing hat.
I fished an average of 150 fish (100-200) on my paladin every Sunday for 9 months.
That's approximately 5400 fish caught.
Now, adding the chance of every pool being a Keefers Anglefish, blizzard should owe me 13 fishing hats (the 14th~ being the one currently on my head)
However, even after fishing in the pool the first time the chance of it _NOT_ being a Keefer's Angelfish the next time is not reduced. It doesn't go 99.75% chance of not - 99.50% chance of not - 99.25% chance of not. (Unfortunately)
So in theory, you could do it indefinitely and never get your Weather Beaten Fishing hat (Or Lucky Fishing hat for that matter). We still have guys in our guild that are fighting with getting that hat after a year. - I recall Bláckóut taking 1 year to get fishing boots, even though everyone was drowning in them elsewhere.
Hope this made sense
Best regards,
sometwink said:if you have a 1 % chance per daily to get it and 5 quests per day is that not a 5% chance to get it per day? then a 45% chance per week if you do every daily?
Zhoste said:2. Put in the work to get the hat.