Twinking has been on a STEADY decline since the option to turn off exp was introduced. Let me discuss on the matter of battlegroups, premades, and guilds to represent a trend I've noticed.
Before battlegroups there were several twink guilds on nearly every server. Almost all of them would partake in guild vs guild premades.
Then there were battlegroups which funneled premading guilds down furthermore. Now there were a few premading guilds across all servers on a battleground. It wasn't very common to find more than one premading guild on one server. Some battlegrounds had more premading guilds than others etc. But after creating a larger pool of players we decreased our number of guilds by creating powerhouse guilds from players of other servers.
Then exp toggling changed things to twink vs twink. What this meant was some battlegroups could not get a single game. With that being said there were no premades (and therefore, premading guilds) on any battlegroup other than Cyclone in late TBC and Ruin early WOTLK. We all mushed to one battlegroup and had perhaps 1 premading powerhouse guild per server in ruin WOTLK. This created only a select handful of premading guilds in all of US.
Sure guilds had "more skillful players" but think of how many premades were not being had as a result of the hundreds of players who were considered good but weren't in a guild's 10 man.
In cata every Battlegroup merged which created 1-3 powerhouse premading guilds in ALL of US.
Sadly being funneled into one pool has completely damaged our twinking population. Everybody says how as a result of that, everyone is a better player. Sure I can see where that person is coming from, but a players skill has nearly nothing to do with his ability in a premade. Premades are about coordination of a team. I've been on absolutely stacked allstar premade teams where we lost and I've been on complete underdog premade teams and we've won. At the end of the day, a group of competent players who work well as a team will always beat these "all-star" teams who can't see past their own egos.
Premading to me is the absolute highest form of competition in 19s. Pugs are just practices for premades. Some people were more into the arena side of things, but I've always been a battleground player because sure, winning a 2s match is fun, but I have never felt better than winning a premade as <Mayhem> with a family that we created from day one.
As of Cata twinking population has definitely increased with a little bit of activity going on in 39s and with the loss of Waw Tawent. The start of MOP was great for twinking. People actually rejoined the bracket because they thought the endless GY farming would be over. Sadly after the demise of EU 19s everything is twofold which is putting our bracket right back into the harsh conditions of cata. As of 2 months ago or so, things were really looking up. Hopefully EU will gain pops again so we can work on constructive in US once again.
Honestly if blizzard merged exp on / off again, brought back skirmishes, OR EVEN made it more difficult to GY farm or "contain" as some people put it twinking would boom overnight. I know a few hundred personal friends who are no longer playing 19s as a result of how horrible things have became. They've all either quit, moved to 20s or moved to 90s but will every once in a while check up on 19s to see if the bracket finally stopped gy farming themselves into no queues.
Quantity over quality does not apply here because it results in 0 games being played for everyone. It is a dead end. Recuperating the population to a flourishing status would be better for everyone. Hell I remember knowing at least 80 different level 19 twinks alone on my medium pop server of Akama. As of cata I am the only 19 twink on the server and the only one of the servers which formerly comprised of my entire battlegroup Vengeance.
Sadface.
It doesn't help knowing that blizzard could make everything amazing again literally over night. Perhaps that's why I'm still playing even though I have not been "happy" with the game since November 12 2008?
Cheers everybody. I hope you take this post with a grain of salt. I don't mean to rant but I just wanted to share a few ideas that came to mind when considering the words "growing" "twinking" and "dying"
Mocha