I think you may have misunderstood some of my points. Not sure if I did a poor job explaining, if so, I apologize.
My point (1) is relevant because these mana reduction talents (Convection vs. Totem Focus / Tidal Focus) are based on %.
In regards to Convection vs. Totemic Focus / Tidal Focus...If you save 20% mana on a Rank 1 Earth Shock, that isn't much. But if you're saving 20% + 10%Clearcast on max rank Earth Shocks, that is more impactful. In pugs you're max ranking more than in premades because often times you have to actually pump in skirmishes. It isn't uncommon in pugs to have stretches of time where you don't cast many heals just because you're the primary damage dealer on offense. Whereas in premades, your damage is good, but it's more important in midfights and skirmishes to be focused on Purging / Healing / Interrupting Heals/CC than applying damage through shocks.
--
In regards to 0/0/20, yeah if you're the defensive healer it is a fine spec. But my guess is with how the meta has evolved, splits matter much less and I'd prefer to have Imp GW for transitional fights.
--
In regards to (3) I was confirming that Nature's Guidance is non-negotiable for premades.
--
My argument would never be that 2/5 Reverberation is better than 2/3 or 3/3 Nature's Guidance. But rather that 5/5 Convection + Elemental Focus makes you a much more sustainable offensive force in pugs. This is amplified by the fact that in premades it isn't uncommon to run 1500-HP/3000+Mana, but in pugs you typically want like 1.9kHP/2.4kMana because it isn't uncommon to play against teams of 5+ Rogue/Hunter with no other healers on your team.
The way I view it is that Elemental (13/7/0) has significantly better Offensive/Damage Dealing mana efficiency, plus some benefits to your Earthbind Totem and you get 3/3 Elemental Warding which does give you some tankiness which is nice in pugs -- FC'ing, 1v3's, etc.
Resto (0/7/13) is more Midfight mana efficient and Nature's Guidance.
Nature's Guidance is non-negotiable for premades because really your main role is to Purge and Earth Shock. Whereas in pugs, your role is much more varied. I think 13/7/0 lets you play a more aggressive role.
TL;DR
IMO there are only 2 real specs I would consider 0/7/13 and 13/7/0. 0/0/20 is viable. I like Imp Ghost Wolf.
"Elemental" (13/7/0) is Offensive mana efficient spec as you are max ranking shocks on cooldown a lot of the time. Also, Elemental Warding and Imp Earthbind are nice in pugs
"Resto" (0/7/13) is Midfight mana efficient spec because you totem and heal more, and are down ranking shocks. Also, Nature's Guidance is more important in that it lets you do your role the best.
Thanks man. Appreciate you breaking it down like that, makes much more sense.
Just some more questions though on your points;
(1) where are you saving 20% mana on a rank 1 earthshock in your example? I checked out Convenction and with 5 points it reduced mana by 10% - just want to make sure I'm not overlooking anything.
I do agree that Convection > Concussion if going the elemental tree, as 5% damage isn't much, you're looking at a 5-10 damage increase on your shocks which isn't crash hot (before SP increases).
Valid point in the pug vs premade argument re: being able to use high rank shocks in pugs to assist with damage, I currently have a shift modifier that swaps between ranks (lowest and highest)
Yeah, I agree strongly with that point re clashes, interruption & purging should be priorities, and healing as high of a priority in premades.
Imp ghostwolf is amazing - for pugs I can 100% agree it's a go to.
For premades, splits are still a thing - clash mid with each teams FC going to flag, and then assist and set up. We had one defensive shaman and one offensive shaman in premades and it worked very well. So I think spec is still very important here depending on the role you'll be playing, for defense I still think 0/0/20 is best, and for offense I think 0/7/13 is the way to go.
It'll be interesting to see how this evolves in TBC with flag carrier debuff coming.
(3) For premades, non negotiable - I couldn't agree more. For PUGs, I couldn't care what people put their talents into, but I still think if we're debating what's more viable, I still think having a purge or shock resisted, or a shock to miss is too punishing compared to being more mana efficient and providing more sustainable damage on offense.
If you're on offense, and chasing an EFC especially, a lot of your shocks will be gap closing frost shocks or earthshocks - with alliance having a strong druid FC presence in pugs at the moment, as you highlighted, naturally that's more nature resist meaning a higher chance to miss / be resisted - which I would argue would be ≤ to Nature's Guidance.
I find myself in PUGs playing offense and chasing EFCs more than anything lately and I hardly find myself OOM, admittingly, that's with downranked earthshock, but even max rank I wouldn't see my mana being an issue.
I have 2631 Mana, 2083HP at the moment - so a bit less than your PUG suggestion and I still find myself either killing EFC, or dying before I run out of mana.
I'm not trying to argue that you won't save mana in Elemental, I'm just arguing that mana saved doesn't mean as much if you're not running OOM, or if you're missing a shock or purge - as that ends up being too crucial to pass up.
Charged Gear's will be coming in the TBC prepatch too, so that's another 10 Nature Resist that most classes will be getting.
My TLDR:
In premades, Nature's Guidance is non negotiable.
If you're rolling with two shaman, having one on defense with 0/0/20 is fine, and the other offense with 0/7/13 is fine. Even two with 0/7/13 is OK.
In PUGs - If you're flag carrying, 13/7/0 is nice.
If RNG is on your side, 13/7/0 is nice for offense / damage / mana efficiency
For a tiny sacrifice in mana:damage, but better reliability, 0/7/13 is best.
