cletus
Member
I'm aware of Wowhead's shortcomings, particularly with loot-specific drops. It's not the only source.
We also have concrete examples of things with different drop rates. Mounts are the obvious example. You might be tempted to say "but that's a mount, not loot". If so, why does that matter?
Anyway, I've done enough Strath runs to have gotten the mount 3 times. That's how many Strath runs I've done. So throwing your hands up and saying "it's all RNG and there's nothing more you can say about that" based on your 5 runs doesn't really hold a lot of water.
BFA weapon drops were notoriously low drop chance. Rare drops have been a thing since Vanilla though. The Blade of Eternal Darkness from Maraudon was incredibly rare. That sword from Mogu'shan Palace is incredibly rare.
To claim "there's no evidence different items have different drop rates" is ahistorical and, to be perfectly blunt, ignorant, arguably intentionally so.
I don't understand what you're saying here. These are two concrete examples of how WoW is different if you're XP-locked. so you can't say there's no difference for twinks.
This is just silly. You at least recognize that RNG is RNG but being RNG does NOT mean you can't do statistical analysis. It just doesn't. You can analyze unknown random distributions without knowing what they are. It's the basis for the Central Limit Theorem.
I've done a lot of TW runs, so much so that I had ~350k TW badges before all the anniversary vendor refreshes, which have probably cost me another 200k I had so many TW badges that I used them to pay for all my heirloom upgrades. I have no idea how many badges I've earned overall. It's conservatively 500k+ however.
From that I can tell you that getting a repeat dungeon in a normal group where you complete the dungeon basically never happens. My suspicion is that Blizzard simply looks at the last TW dungeon each person in the group did and it picks randomly from the ones that no one most recently did. Implementations tend to be as simple as possible and this would be pretty simple. Blizzard may look further than that but that has limited value so I doubt they do it.
Part of this hypothesis is you only get "credit" for completing the dungeon, meaning if you left early, it's as if it never happened so yes, getting Court of Stars after leaving CoS now becomes possible (1/6) whereas it wouldn't otherwise happen. And I do just leave CoS so I can get repeats in a way a "normal" player completing the dungeon simply won't.
I can also say that in all my TW I've NEVER gotten the same dungeon 3 times in a row. Not once. Ever. It happened multiple times onver the weekend. The difference? Leaving the instance.
The point I'm trying to make here is I'm not just making stuff up or engaging in WoW astrology.
We have two concrete systems (reduced XP, longer queue times) aimed directly at and because of twinks. You can't say that Blizzard can't make twink-specific changes or that they don't care about this issue because there are two irrefutable examples contradicting such claims.
