What is the win ratio?

[Chops]

I can compare apples to apples here for you

I have a horde and alliance warrior, both with about 25k hks. Not counting classic BGs or epics, Alliance warrior has 79.777% (repeating, of course) win rate. Horde warrior is sitting at 80.777%.

I dont afk BGs and mostly get carried by my team.

so, ya know. Its pretty damn even.

 

[Severuss]

Most productive thing I've done at work today:

My win percentage and record as Alliance Level 20 bracket 2021-2022:
(99% of these are solo queueing. Don't really group)

Total:
453-235 (65%)

By Class:
Priest - 77-43 (64%)
Hunter - 122-76 (62%)
Monk - 3-1 (75%)
Warlock - 11-4 (73%)
Druid - 33-14 (70%)
Warrior - 134-47 (74%)
Mage - 30-16 (65%)
Shaman - 43-34 (56%)

 

[toskosa]

so, ya know. Its pretty damn even.

Yeah its probably mostly even. tbh this topic comes up all the time on the bg forums and the ppl who say " I have sub 50% win ratio as factionX" normally has a 50-60% win ratio.

 

[Goesid]

Yeah its probably mostly even. tbh this topic comes up all the time on the bg forums and the ppl who say " I have sub 50% win ratio as factionX" normally has a 50-60% win ratio.

Well apart from Celydar everyone has behaved nicely and on point.

 

[dimemega]

If im playing heals the Horde dont loose and havent died yet today in 8 bgs

 

[Fang]

Are you guys referring to a specific region or just saying "Horde has more X" and "Alliance behaves like that" in general?

 

[waterbottle]

Are you guys referring to a specific region or just saying "Horde has more X" and "Alliance behaves like that" in general?

I mean alliance has more healers, horde has more killers. at least in my experience

 

[Fang]

That's my experience too, at least in EU. I don't play US enough to have a clear view of the bracket.

 

[Vail]

But its pretty even overall.

Playing on the US realms, I have to disagree. Started playing 20s again relatively recently, but due to work only play during early morning hours, and from what I have seen, the Horde win a large majority of the time.

The greatest contributing factor, they roll multiple 5-man-5am death squads, and if you are unlucky enough, you can end up against a full 10-man of twinks. By contrast the alliance have NEVER had a premade going at this time-- Likely because there are only 2 or 3 of us online... The obvious conclusion is that the Horde do not play ally toons at that hour, regardless of longer wait times, because they know they can get easy wins on Horde.

More to the OP's question though: over the years, I have found there to be less "ego" on Alliance (not just in the 20 bracket), and so people are generally more easy going and friendly. It is a much more enjoyable environment. And if you play on a more social realm, you may find that non-f2p will actually (without you having to ask) stop to talk to you / ask if you need help with anything.

 

[Chops]

Playing on the US realms, I have to disagree. Started playing 20s again relatively recently, but due to work only play during early morning hours, and from what I have seen, the Horde win a large majority of the time.

You can disagree all you like but until someone produces actual numbers from a decent sized sample with minimized variables (as I have) then its just guesswork and "sure feels like Im losing a lot"

Which is fair! I feel like I lose a lot more than I (apparently) actually do. 80% win rate? The fuck? If you asked me to guess it, I'd have said that over the past year my win rate was in the low 60s. A lot of twinks (especially those who complain about faction imbalance) have win rates in the 70s or high 60s. So it tracks that theyd think theyre only winning about 45%-55%. That'd make anyone grouchy.

Perception plays a huge role here. Losses sting way more because (hopefully) you arent getting steamrolled too bad. So you're working your ass off to still lose an AB 1200-1500. So it hurts. But winning an AB 1500-1200? *yawn* no way that game was memorable to you. Que back up, open your BG box, grouch about not getting a MOH, curbstomp another group of levelers in temple. Wash, rinse, repeat.

It's also time of day and time of week. I wont draw any grand conclusions about this faction does this or that faction does that, but its pretty well established over multiple xpacs that as the days and week passes, different factions experience different populations of twinks. It's easy to say that horde are a bunch of degenerates (they are) who stay up till 4am farming GYs after they get off work at Subway but thats just as true of a bunch of alliance twinks.

At "prime time" it sure does *feel* like horde run a bunch more hunter stacked premades. And maybe they do, maybe they dont (ive certainly looked at ally rosters and said "we're the baddies this game" enough times). But apparently its not affecting win rates too much. I've seen some of these hunters chat about their win rates and theyre in the 70s. Which is not far out of the norm for any given twink.

The only conclusion I can draw is that being a twink is far more predictive of your win rate than what faction you twink on. Seems like youre gonna be sitting at a pretty solidly positive win percent no matter what you do.

 

[Vail]

then its just guesswork

But it's not guess work, and while the EXACT number isn't revealed to the playerbase, a clear threshold has been exceeded in the sheer number of Horde players participating in pvp vs Alliance players. This can be seen in multiple ways; the continuous presence of the Horde Mercenary Npc outside Ashran, the near-constant warmode bonuses the Alliance VERY rarely losses access to, and the fact that Horde wait times across all brackets are on average 3-4 times longer than Alliance.

Its gotten to the point that Blizzard has acknowledged that they are going to have to allow cross faction play, because they can't fix the faction imbalance.

Now ofc, I am speaking to sheer numbers, and not win rate directly, but I think it is a safe conclusion to say, the faction that Blizzard acknowledges to be more dedicated to pvp has a distinct advantage in general.

 

[Chops]

Horde Mercenary Npc

warmode bonuses the Alliance VERY rarely losses access to

across all brackets

 

[Vail]

View attachment 20673

I am aware that I am speaking in general, but this bracket is not a unique case.

 

[JadeFire]

It's even as far as the amount of twinks.

What is not even is when I see a Horde premade set up and they have an enhancement shaman, a blood DK, a holy priest, and a outlaw rogue... they que up... face down a double Hpal pocket healed turbo alliance premade and then bitch about how they "magically" lost.

The Horde has a ton more people playing ass-hat specs... which I 100% salute... but, that is the real issue.

I'm glad your Horde Arcane mage has 50% haste... but, I mean... what did you expect it to play like versus tier 1 classes.

 

[Kirise]

Now ofc, I am speaking to sheer numbers, and not win rate directly, but I think it is a safe conclusion to say, the faction that Blizzard acknowledges to be more dedicated to pvp has a distinct advantage in general.

It's a far stretch to assume that the faction more dedicated to endgame PvP has that much of an effect on win ratio for 20s. Could dedication to PvP influence population in the 20 bracket? Sure, but that doesn't prevent people from rolling up multiple factions for the lowest-character-level live twink bracket in the game. Furthermore, larger population doesn't correlate with skill or win ratio. In fact, twink brackets have a history where the faction with the smaller population tends to win more, presumably (but not assuredly) since they play together more often and develop synergy. It's a counterintuitive problem that sunk many a midbracket in previous expansions.

Playing within premades certainly boosts win ratios for those players. But overall, the numbers posted in this thread show that the win ratios are pretty even between factions. My favorite game of 2022 so far consisted of five alliance shamans and a rogue winning a nailbiter Twin Peaks against a Horde team that included 6 hunters, a disc priest, and a couple of warriors.

We can complain about how premades and OP classes make this bracket "less fun" for the many twinks who don't involve themselves in either of those, but let's remember we use levelers as fodder to make games happen in the first place. Let's check our hypocrisy at the door.

 

[Chops]

I am aware that I am speaking in general, but this bracket is not a unique case.

dude asked about win ratios in 20s, not end game population. those are two very different things. I cant speak to population totals at end game or why theyre skewed towards horde. I dont care. At first blush though, I'd imagine its a chicken/egg question thats just become an infinite feedback loop.

What I can address is 20s bracket performance and from my experience, I can tell you its pretty even.

What is not even is when I see a Horde premade set up and they have an enhancement shaman, a blood DK, a holy priest, and a outlaw rogue... they que up... face down a double Hpal pocket healed turbo alliance premade and then bitch about how they "magically" lost.

The Horde has a ton more people playing ass-hat specs... which I 100% salute... but, that is the real issue.

This is a perfect example of what I mean when I say its all about perception. When I've run into Jades horde toons, he's usually gotten into a game with a horde hunter premade and me and the boys are doing dumb shit like running 5 ele shaman. So I often see "omg our hipster comp is playing against yet another horde hunter premade"

Thats when you gotta step back and actually look at numbers. That ele shaman that I feel like is CONSTANTLY losing to horde hunter premades? Positive win rate. Jades DK? Also has a positive win rate.

 

[Vail]

It's a far stretch to assume that the faction more dedicated to endgame PvP has that much of an effect on win ratio for 20s

dude asked about win ratios in 20s, not end game population.

Tbh, I am surprised to hear this argument. I don't recall a time when the ratios at 20 deviated EXCESSIVELY from every other bracket (not just end game) in terms of faction advantage.

We can complain about how premades and OP classes make this bracket "less fun"

"less fun" is a glib summary -- and I don't want to de-rail the thread here -- but as I said, Alliance twinking is dead during the early morning hours. The Horde players have both the opportunity and incentive to play as Alliance toons due to greater rewards and short que times, but they choose not to do so.

 

[Warglave]

twink brackets have a history

My take on that was generally that the smaller/weaker faction at endgame tended to be the larger (tho still weaker) faction at lowest levels, since to risk painting with a huge brush.... they had no chance at winning otherwise.

Not talking about premades and communities, just about "twinks" in general and their presence. Bad twinks are still twinks.

Used to matter more, IMO, when there were larger gaps between leveler and geared, tho.

edit- or especially geared vs. f2play....

 

[Chops]

Tbh, I am surprised to hear this argument. I don't recall a time when the ratios at 20 deviated EXCESSIVELY from every other bracket (not just end game) in terms of faction advantage.

You're conflating several things here. Win percentage/ratio is not population, twinks are not end game, faction "advantage" (whatever you mean by that) is not win rate.

While I'm sure there are some correlations here (people probably twink on the faction their 60s are, etc) none of that addresses the OPs question. Which was faction win ratio (not population) in the 20s bracket. That ratio is pretty even, irrespective of population size at 20 or (for whatever reason you think it matters) end game.

 

[Vail]

You're conflating several things here. Win percentage/ratio is not population, twinks are not end game, faction "advantage" (whatever you mean by that) is not win rate.

You are suggesting that Blizzard's acknowledgement of a Horde advantage is only with regards to "end game" (as you put it), and not to the greater whole of the game, the 20 bracket included? I have not heard that take on it before.

While a clear population advantage does not always lead to winning, it certainly helps-- Especially when one side can't even field a full team, let alone two or more.