Trading Mindthrust Bracers for Hotshot pilot gloves

Stabulous said:
I could not believe my eyes when I saw this post.. search mindthrust bracers on the undermine journal in comparison to hotshots..will make the price difference/rarity a little clearer
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The drop rate is the same. The difference is the demand.
Now a couple months ago if you had done the same for shadowfang you would have been surprised to find that someone had 9 of them on BH's Auction House. Does that make them less rare since there were 9 up at once for a few weeks at a time? No, not at all. 19's were not running too much then and that person flooded the market. A year from now the same may happen to hotshots. They will be just a badge of yore.
 
Mmm..Atm 95 Mindthrust on AH's across Azeroth compared to the 4 Hotshot's.... Hotshot's Lowest 140k, Mindthrust's 900g....
 
Allybeboba said:
The drop rate is the same. The difference is the demand.
Now a couple months ago if you had done the same for shadowfang you would have been surprised to find that someone had 9 of them on BH's Auction House. Does that make them less rare since there were 9 up at once for a few weeks at a time? No, not at all. 19's were not running too much then and that person flooded the market. A year from now the same may happen to hotshots. They will be just a badge of yore.
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The drop rate for MTB is higher when you factor in that they drop from a larger range of mobs. Your statement is ignorant.

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There are many contributing factors towards this discussion, I personally think an item that drops off bosses only is a little harder to come by then an instance trash drop.. Wowhead prices Hotshot's at 450k, Which imo is overpriced but in saying that doesn't have its drop% or who from etc....With Mindthrust's on the other hand is priced at 5,567g 29s and has drop rates listed and who from, Droprates stemming from 0.13% down to 0.01%. Every1 has a right to their own opinion about what is really worth as much as the next item, Imo taking these stats into account Mindthrusts is just not worth as much as hotshot's
 
soskanky said:
The drop rate for MTB is higher when you factor in that they drop from a larger range of mobs. Your statement is ignorant.

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Drop rates do not change when you factor the amount of mob in. That is like stating you have a better chance to get a drop on the second, third, forth etc time you kill a mob. Statically it is the same chance each and every time. Your probability of that particular item drop increases with each kill. But the individual rate chance is still the same.
/cheers

Sweetsidney
 
Allybeboba said:
Drop rates do not change when you factor the amount of mob in. That is like stating you have a better chance to get a drop on the second, third, forth etc time you kill a mob. Statically it is the same chance each and every time. Your probability of that particular item drop increases with each kill. But the individual rate chance is still the same.
/cheers

Sweetsidney
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Ofc it changes thing's....How many trash mobs in shadowfang keep? How many bosses in Gnomeregan? With the highest drop chance being 0.13% chance of a certain trash mob and there being multiples of that mob compared to a 0.01% chance of hotshots which drops off only bosses....Really u have more chance of getting mindthrusts to drop..More trash=More chance in one run..Only a certain amount of bosses that drop it in Gnomeregan
 
Allybeboba said:
Drop rates do not change when you factor the amount of mob in. That is like stating you have a better chance to get a drop on the second, third, forth etc time you kill a mob. Statically it is the same chance each and every time. Your probability of that particular item drop increases with each kill. But the individual rate chance is still the same.
/cheers

Sweetsidney
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The drop rate isn't limited to the rate off a certain mob, but can also be applied to the rate per run. Of which since there are at least 3 times as many mobs the drop MTB than Hotshots you are incorrect. This is why there are significantly more on the market in comparison to Hot shots.

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Stabulous said:
Ofc it changes thing's....How many trash mobs in shadowfang keep? How many bosses in Gnomeregan? With the highest drop chance being 0.13% chance of a certain trash mob and there being multiples of that mob compared to a 0.01% chance of hotshots which drops off only bosses....Really u have more chance of getting mindthrusts to drop..More trash=More chance in one run..Only a certain amount of bosses that drop it in Gnomeregan
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Let me explain it a different way then. The chances of winning the lottery are about 175 million. You buy 3 ticket( gnomer bosses). You still have 1in175,000,000 chance. Just 3 tries. Your odds never change. With MTB you have more chances but the odds are are still the same. Get it?
 
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Allybeboba said:
Let me explain it a different way then. The chances of winning the lottery are about 175 million. You buy 3 ticket( gnomer bosses). You still have 1in175,000,000 chance. Just 3 tries. Your odds never change. With MTB you have more chances but the odds are are still the same. Get it?
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Allybeboba said:
The drop rate is the same. The difference is the demand.
Now a couple months ago if you had done the same for shadowfang you would have been surprised to find that someone had 9 of them on BH's Auction House. Does that make them less rare since there were 9 up at once for a few weeks at a time? No, not at all. 19's were not running too much then and that person flooded the market. A year from now the same may happen to hotshots. They will be just a badge of yore.
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I understand that entirely, But do you understand what we are trying to say? Your whole 1st comment quoting me was wrong, Droprates aren't the same. Hotshot's are a lot rarer. End of story xD.
 
Allybeboba said:
Let me explain it a different way then. The chances of winning the lottery are about 175 million. You buy 3 ticket( gnomer bosses). You still have 1in175,000,000 chance. Just 3 tries. Your odds never change. With MTB you have more chances but the odds are are still the same. Get it?
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Your lottery example is wrong as well since lottery chances are specifically stated to be for a single ticket. You do in fact increase your overall odds the more tickets you purchase, albeit small.

http://m.wikihow.com/Figure-Your-Odds-of-Holding-a-Winning-Lottery-Ticket

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I am glad you went to all the trouble to look up my lottery example. I am quite flattered that you carved a bit of your time of your day, all for me. /blush
Anywho, why do think I did say not state "exactly the same"? Because it obviously is not.
Now if you would kindly go bother someone else with you negative comments. /shoo
 
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Allybeboba said:
I am glad you went to all the trouble to look up my lottery example. I am quite flattered that you carved a bit of your time of your day, all for me. /blush
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Google takes about 30 seconds. Next time maybe you won't be so ignorant.

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Allybeboba said:
As a statistician, perhaps you could point out the flaws in our discussion.
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The fact your lottery example is flawed.

These are tickets for 2 separate lotteries. The Mindthrust lottery is a lot cheaper. Therefore you can buy more tickets, increasing your personal probability of being successful. Hotshot is a more expensive lottery, meaning you can only buy less tickets than MTB lottery. And like most lotteries, the expensive the lottery, the bigger the prize.
 
Artonkn said:
The fact your lottery example is flawed.
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It was not an example, it was an analogy.

Back to the subject at hand.
According to TSM, "world value" of MTB are on par with Hot Shots. It is just a matter of what server the piece of gear is on, that server's economy, population, etc... It can be a myriad of factors that determine the price of a piece of lowbie gear on any given server at any given time.
You may try posting in the AH subforum.
Good luck with your trade or sale!
 
So you have a bucket full of 100 ping pong balls, 99 being white, 1 being black. There are a total of 4 or 5 buckets that represent Gnomer bosses, and however many dozens of buckets that represent trash mobs in SFK. Although your odds of picking a black ping pong ball out of the buckets is the same for each bucket, you have a greater chance of getting one from the SFK buckets. Droprate may be the same, but your chances of seeing the item drop is different.
 
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