Seeking insight for item upgrade chances

teamatey

teamatey

New Member
Hey there. I'm new to F2P twinking but have learned many of the basics from Doobyg's guide, including upgrade chances for various rewards from dungeons/quests/WoD/etc.

I learned about the trinket https://www.wowhead.com/item=129260/tenacity-of-cursed-blood and thought it would be an enjoyable goal to try and grind for it. I even made it a personal speedrun, and as a pure F2P without the level 1 mount, have a personal best of 1h 48m.

Since then, I've obtained the trinket 36 times without an upgrade. I actually thought I'd attempted this far less times, but thankfully my own screenshots can verify this. The chance of this happening, assuming every item upgrade is an independent 10% chance, is 2.25% (in other words, I've had a 97.75% chance to obtain an upgrade by now).

I'm wondering if anyone has noticed any trends, checks & balances, or other internal workings to the item upgrade system that might cause some predictability or consistency. Though I never recorded the other item upgrades I'd received along the way, I noticed some rewards seemed to upgrade more often than others - especially a bracer piece shortly after entering Stormheim. This could just be observational bias.

Understandably, I've become a bit paranoid that this might not be possible for some reason.
 
teamatey said:
Hey there. I'm new to F2P twinking but have learned many of the basics from Doobyg's guide, including upgrade chances for various rewards from dungeons/quests/WoD/etc.

I learned about the trinket https://www.wowhead.com/item=129260/tenacity-of-cursed-blood and thought it would be an enjoyable goal to try and grind for it. I even made it a personal speedrun, and as a pure F2P without the level 1 mount, have a personal best of 1h 48m.

Since then, I've obtained the trinket 36 times without an upgrade. I actually thought I'd attempted this far less times, but thankfully my own screenshots can verify this. The chance of this happening, assuming every item upgrade is an independent 10% chance, is 2.25% (in other words, I've had a 97.75% chance to obtain an upgrade by now).

I'm wondering if anyone has noticed any trends, checks & balances, or other internal workings to the item upgrade system that might cause some predictability or consistency. Though I never recorded the other item upgrades I'd received along the way, I noticed some rewards seemed to upgrade more often than others - especially a bracer piece shortly after entering Stormheim. This could just be observational bias.

Understandably, I've become a bit paranoid that this might not be possible for some reason.
Click to expand...
I don’t have the exact numbers for you, but the reason why wrists feel more common is cuz they can also proc a socket slot and indestructble, So it has more than double the chances to get a proc, while trinkets can only get speed / leech / avoidance.

But don’t give up, took me like 50 daggers before I got it with speed and I’m currently at 32 gloves.
 
Conzil said:
I don’t have the exact numbers for you, but the reason why wrists feel more common is cuz they can also proc a socket slot and indestructble, So it has more than double the chances to get a proc, while trinkets can only get speed / leech / avoidance.

But don’t give up, took me like 50 daggers before I got it with speed and I’m currently at 32 gloves.
Click to expand...

That actually makes a lot of sense, and me feel a lot better. I suppose I'll keep trying; only 8 more attempts before I've reached a 99% chance to have obtained one :slight_smile:
 
Conzil said:
348 items upgraded with only Socket, or 8.79%.
109 items upgraded with only Leech, or 2.75%.
108 items upgraded with only Speed, or 2.73%.
84 items upgraded with only Avoidance, or 2.12%.
58 items upgraded with only Indestructible, or 1.46%.
19 items upgraded with both Socket and Leech, or 0.48%.
13 items upgraded with both Socket and Speed, or 0.33%.
12 item upgraded with both Socket and Avoidance, or 0.30%.
7 item upgraded with both Socket and Indestructible, or 0.18%.
Click to expand...
I found my data from back in SL when I was farming Rezan, can't guarantee it will be same now tho, this was based on 3961 looted items.
 
Conzil said:
I found my data from back in SL when I was farming Rezan, can't guarantee it will be same now tho, this was based on 3961 looted items.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the data! However, I think that quest rewards might function differently. I'm actually not sure that they follow this same system of random enhancements, but rather, a flat item level increase. Edit: Which makes me realize that the wrist anecdote might not be as resolved as I'd thought; I'm still more than willing to chalk it up to observational bias.
 
teamatey said:
Appreciate the data! However, I think that quest rewards might function differently. I'm actually not sure that they follow this same system of random enhancements, but rather, a flat item level increase. Edit: Which makes me realize that the wrist anecdote might not be as resolved as I'd thought; I'm still more than willing to chalk it up to observational bias.
Click to expand...
Holy shit I’m so stupid, I didn’t really look at the trinket you posted, I mixed it up with a dungeon one, so ignore everything I’ve said lol

I only looked at at icon and was like “ah, that must be Hunger of the Pack”
 
So... this is total grayon-eater science here:
I am in the process of rolling a new roster of 20's. If I don't get an epic proc on the chest reward from https://www.wowhead.com/quest=29596/the-end-of-the-exarch
then it's a re-roll, & I start the toon over.
After roughly 3 1/2 weeks & probably 40ish re-rolls, I only have 2 toons with the chest. HOWEVER...
Both of those toons had been rested for something to the tune of a full week before I logged on with em & ran the dungeon for the quest & item.
SO... my advice to you is : Get your toon up to that quest, or up to a series of quests that will reward no gear, rest em' for a week & THEN log on & complete it.
You'll also want to make sure to get the First Legion Order Hall upgrade, as it's buffs your chance for quest rewards to proc upgrades.
I wish you good fortune in the drops to come.
 
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I'm pleased to announce that it happened on my 39th attempt, or about 78 hours! Wild it should follow so soon after my concerned post.

1712829944826.png
 
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