Random string of unarmed crits - Does anyone know the odds of this?

Discussion in 'Classic WoW' started by Druiddroid, May 15, 2020.

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  1. Druiddroid

    Druiddroid Member Moderator

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    Was training unarmed on my mage in the background and I heard a few crits, didn't think much of it until I checked the log. 5x crits in a row, and 8 out of 10 crits:

    [​IMG]

    Character stats:
    [​IMG]

    Target was winter wolf, don't remember if it was lv7 or lv8. Unarmed skill was around 150-159.

    Could someone find out what the odds of 8 out of 10 swings crit and 5 in a row crit are? I don’t know the crit % chance.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
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  2. Puempeekstoh

    Puempeekstoh Grandfathered

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    Have you considered that your name has given you hidden powers?
     
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  3. Bestworld

    Bestworld MBA

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    8 out of 10

    (8/10)*100 = 80%

    5 times in a row using the 80% statistic you provided

    (8/10)^5 = ~3%

    Taking your actual character stats and converting it into crit using this tool.

    Your crit is your base melee crit of your level (check that in spell book) + 1.70% crit.

    Use the same formular to calculate your chances of 5 times crits in a row as stated earlier.

    ([your crit])^5 = ?%

    QUICK MAFS

    Also there's obviously a bit more to it, like your weapon skill versus the level of your target, the fact you're standing in front of it (chances of parry, miss, dodge, glancing blow etc.)

    I don't actually have the numbers to calculate that stuff outside of max level. I'd have to research extensively for the formular, which I'm way too lazy to do, so I just provided the basic numbers.

    You will always have a base of 1% miss chance no matter what I believe.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
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  4. OP
    Druiddroid

    Druiddroid Member Moderator

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    Sorry I meant 8/10 as in I crit 8 out of 10 times in 10 swings. Not that my crit chance is 80%. I’m also asking a second question, about 5 crits in a row, which is indeed (Crit chance%)^5. I don’t know what that crit chance % is and that’s my main problem.

    I edited my post for better English, saw why you interpreted my OP that way.
     
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  5. Bestworld

    Bestworld MBA

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    Check your crit in the spell book (I believe it's the melee icon or whatever, it should show you), then add the crit I provided from the tool, using your class and current stats. Then use the formular I provided for a rough estimate. Like I mentioned, there are other various factors to take into account as well if you wanna go full-on in-depth (dodge, parry, glancing blow and the 1% baseline miss chance).
     
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  6. OP
    Druiddroid

    Druiddroid Member Moderator

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    Currently at 169 skill, level 39, and 4.15% crit. Add 1.7% crit, crit chance is 5.85%. Assuming crit was the same:

    5 crits in a row:
    (0.0585)^5 = 6.85e-7 = 0.000000685

    ...or about 1 in 1 million

    8 out of 10 swings being crits, if I recall the equation right (correct me if I'm wrong):
    (0.0585)^8 * (1-0.0585)^2 * (10!/8!) = 1.09e-8 = 0.0000000109

    ...or about 1 in 100 million
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2020
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  7. Bestworld

    Bestworld MBA

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    In other words, you should start playing the lottery.

    All things aside, there could be some higher chances of critting against lower level targets (especially in PvE). Don't know if that's actually a thing. Also, your crit chance would in reality be much lower because of the other factors I mentioned earlier, the 1% baseline miss chance (no way of getting around that), chances of dodge, parry, glancing blow (which, again, might also not be as high of a chance, if at all possible, vs such a low lvl target in PvE).

    Melee calculations are aids...

    Honestly, when taking in all of the factors, you could for simplicity sake, think of it as 1 big roll and distribute the chances within certain ranges. It would probably give you the most accurate indication while still being incorrect.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2020
  8. OP
    Druiddroid

    Druiddroid Member Moderator

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    Well, the idea would be to somehow find the exact % chance of a crit, taking into account all of those factors. Then just plug crit chance into the equation and it would be correct. Crit chance should be the same for each swing.

    I'm not looking for a perfect answer anyways, more of a ball park estimate of the odds of this. It seemed so unusual to have a 1 in 100 million sort of thing happen. People have farmed for years for items with a higher drop rate than that :^)
     
  9. Selaya

    Selaya <3 Head Admin

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    nah all his luck's already been wasted on getting crits, wont win the jackpot anytime soon :^]
     
  10. Veechard

    Veechard Grandfathered

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    There is a hidden formula for melee pretty sure. The lower the mob is compared to your level, the higher chance for you to crit it. So say your crit is 20% at level 37, you will have about a 20% chance to crit a level 37 mob (plus other factors). But it might be like 25-30% chance against mobs half your level or lower. So on and so forth. Could very well be double your crit % when your killing mobs that low. Don’t quote me on this, it’s just something I noticed in vanilla and looks like it might have carried over to classic. Also sorry if anyone else in thread has mentioned, didn’t feel like reading all the comments
     
  11. OP
    Druiddroid

    Druiddroid Member Moderator

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    Yeah that would make sense. If the crit chance were doubled, it would make the odds of this string oc crits happening exponentially higher.
    --- Double Post Merged, May 18, 2020, Original Post Date: May 18, 2020 ---
    The key to hitting good rng in life is rolling the dice again and again
     

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