How Many Attempts To Reroll BiS?

[nathaniel]

I am attempting to reroll BiS for Outlaw Rogue.

Currently on attempt 28 at the time of this post.

How many times have you rerolled for far?

 

[ohti]

My WW monk is the only toon I've rerolled for, took like 2 tries for epic sooth

 

[Sploofin]

it took me 31 rerolls to get hand of argus to proc epic, 8 drops for foamspittle, and 122 drops for feathered headdress.

if you use the most commonly accepted (but definitely wrong to who-knows-what extent) rate of 1/7 to upgrade green>blue or blue>purp, then you're looking at 1/49 for green>blue>purp. so if you're going sooth into spark, you'd expect one double proc out of 2,401 rerolls. If you wanna toss another epic into the mix you'd be looking at 117,649 rerolls for a triple proc and so on. obviously none of that means you couldn't get all three on your first try.

the numbers get more favorable if you believe there's some sort of safeguard mechanic built in that makes a proc more likely with each subsequent failure (I personally don't believe that), but it's safe to say that going for even 2 procs from green is going to be a very long grind for most

2c, happy hunting

 

[Neon]

Rerolled 7 times levelled 1-20 on taurens for rugged walking staff epic.

 

[Sin'dor]

if you use the most commonly accepted (but definitely wrong to who-knows-what extent) rate of 1/7 to upgrade green>blue or blue>purp, then you're looking at 1/49 for green>blue>purp.

As one of the "anecdotal statisticians" that originally circulated those odds, I feel obligated to confess that I've seen enough data since then to convince me that the actual odds are most-likely 1/8 x 1/8 (...which also makes more sense from a programming perspective, being a "binary exponent" and all).

Not that it really makes much difference... "RNG is just gonna' RNG".

the numbers get more favorable if you believe there's some sort of safeguard mechanic built in that makes a proc more likely with each subsequent failure

Even if there was... I can't imagine that it would cumulatively-track that across rerolled-characters!

Anyway, sorry for interrupting... as you were!

 

[Daltert Moropi]

Tbh, a lot of my characters didn’t finished their quests when I farmed on others for transmog items... so I guess I got some farming to do.

 

[Tuskbreaker]

100 exactly for fallen apprentice robe
no epics after that tho so i guess im back on the grind

 

[Eleannor]

I also believe in this.

As one of the "anecdotal statisticians" that originally circulated those odds, I feel obligated to confess that I've seen enough data since then to convince me that the actual odds are most-likely 1/8 x 1/8 (...which also makes more sense from a programming perspective, being a "binary exponent" and all)

As in one of my past posts:

Well, I have a theory based on elunifeimos's comment in https://www.wowhead.com/item=135539/crate-of-battlefield-goods . He says that, after opening 443 BG crates, he found that the chance of items upgrading to rare is about 1/8 (or 12,5%).

If you look at Blizzard's database, you will se that items from those crates are marked only as 'Chance to be Rare', which we can assume is equal to 1/8 (or 12,5%), while unique items are marked as both 'Chance to be Rare' and 'Chance to be Epic'.

I believe the chances of both events might be the same. So, if we want to calculate the chance of a green going epic we would calculate it in the following forms:

• 1/8 * 1/8; or
• 12,5% of 12,5%.

Solving by fraction or decimals we ended up with the supposed chance of 1/64 or 1,5625% of a green upgrading straight to epic. Keep in mind that there might be a system increasing the odds in favor of the player after each failed upgrade roll (or even item drop).

Rares to epic should still be about 1/8 or 12,5% chance if theory is correct.

Hope this helps all my precious twinkbois out there.

 

[nathaniel]

Attempt 29 netted Soothsayers and Corpseweed.

Will update on progress. Need Soothsayers/Sparkproof!

 

[sevenohseven]

all that work just to be shit on by BoA reroll toons for 9 levels lol.

 

[Catz]

Got 42 tries to loot epic mace at Westfall. Bad idea
Did all available quests for mage and shaman with rerolls Horde\Aliance
Also, have GFs druid and think about doing all his quests

 

[Donor]

#zerorerollslife

 

[nathaniel]

Update 50 rolls in

46 Green
4 Blue

#pray
[doublepost=1563545045,1563538899][/doublepost]52nd reroll

Epic Sparkpoof/Green Soothsayers

 

[Diversant]

Did soothsayers and sparkproof quests back to back on an old human rogue I've made back in mop.
Both dinged Epic.
Guess I'm lucky?

Sad thing is that he's on a German realm which means I can't do battlegrounds..

Should I waste some money and transfer him onto an English realm or just try to reroll?



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[Dethtic]

First try on Field Tested Spear on my new survival hunter.