how hard is it to get the TF gear you need?

[adol]

so according to delindsay, we have 5% chance of getting TF gear from a box.
say, you are missing a a weapon to be full TF

then it is 5%/9, which is roughly 0.555%..
for a class like priest/lock/mage/rogue would be 5%/10 because you have 2 possible weapons.

with some assumptions.

1. we do not have bad luck protection (this will be implemented for legion legendaries i heard)
2. each gear piece has an equal probability of a drop (this won't be true for weapons tho)
3. each gear piece has an equal probability of getting TF proc.
4. each box will contain a single piece (not true)

for non-weapon pieces , it would be 0.5%/4 = 1.25%
due to the fact
blue boxes contain: head, shoulder, chest, leg
green boxes contain : wrist, hand, waist, feet

this post might be useless since i do not know how blizz writes the algorithm..
but i just wanted to check this myself and wanted to share.

grats to people who got full TF gear.. and good luck to people who's still farming.
cheers

 

[Northfear]

Don't believe that rating 720 warforged got 5% chance. More like 2% for me (close to 500 boxes on a single char here)
And chance to get something from the large chest is higher because of the chance of additional item roll (which probably includes weapon too)

 

[Razien]

I nearly have three full geared characters now.

I doubt the drop rate really is less than 2% because i'm not thát lucky.

 

[adol]

Don't believe that rating 720 warforged got 5% chance. More like 2% for me (close to 500 boxes on a single char here)
And chance to get something from the large chest is higher because of the chance of additional item roll (which probably includes weapon too)

yes the statistic is not that accurate. since i'm just using delindsay's data and mine (i also opened more than 500)
and it is true that you can get multiple items from a box, but since i don't have the data (the probability of a box containing more than 1) i had to neglect that factor.

I nearly have three full geared characters now.

I doubt the drop rate really is less than 2% because i'm not thát lucky.

RNG is RNG. I don't think your DNA has any RNG factor lol..
just getting a TF gear is not that bad (5%), but getting a specific TF gear will have very very difficult due to duplicates.

 

[Razien]

yes the statistic is not that accurate. since i'm just using delindsay's data and mine (i also opened more than 500)
and it is true that you can get multiple items from a box, but since i don't have the data (the probability of a box containing more than 1) i had to neglect that factor.



RNG is RNG. I don't think your DNA has any RNG factor lol..
just getting a TF gear is not that bad (5%), but getting a specific TF gear will have very very difficult due to duplicates.

so you're saying i AM very lucky, then.

 

[adol]

so you're saying i AM very lucky, then.

based on the data i have, i'd say you're very very lucky. even getting to 7~9/10 is very lucky

 

[Purj]

I'd be all done if we did get 1 in 20.

I'm getting my pieces at around 1%.

For example, I had 34 boxes to open this morning. I got 0 ilvl 34, 3x ilvl 29 and 33 ilvl 24.

RNG is a fickle bitch, whom I would gladly fight IRL.