Are you as stupid as the average WoW player?

iaccidentallytwink

Guild Master
I almost want to ragequit after reading my own thread about being unlucky with drops. I'm not going to get into details here, but this is the thread.

I apologize in advance for the demeanor in this post but I am literally furious right now at how mind numbingly stupid the average WoW player is in regards to basic high school math. YES, I AM FKN MAD BRO!

If an item has a 50% chance to drop, what is the chance it will drop on the first try?
50%

If an item has a 50% chance to drop, what is the chance it will drop on the second try?
50%

If an item has a 50% chance to drop, what percentage of players will have it drop by the second try? If you thought anything but 75%,
you're an idiot.

Refer here: http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/

y = (log(1-z)/log(1-x))

2 = (log(1-.75)/log(1-.5))
 
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This is Year 10 work. :p

Considering most WoW players are kids under the age of 16, I wouldn't expect them to know this.

In simpler terms, with the scenario you gave, here are the possible outcomes:

1. Player gets item on First Attempt or Second Attempt, in which case in the other attempt the item did not drop (i.e. it only dropped in one of those runs).

2. Player does not get item to drop on either attempt.

3. Player gets item to drop on both attempts.

Your 3rd question is what is the chance the player will get the item by the second chance. This means what is the chance of outcomes 1 or 3 happening, or what is the chance of outcome 2 NOT happening.

To calculate the answer, I will use the latter, since it's easier. The calculations:

0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 or 25%

So we have a 25% chance that outcome 2 will happen. However, to get the answer to the question on what is the chance of outcome 2 NOT happening, we have to subtract that from 100%, which gives 75%.

The alternative way is to calculate the chance that outcomes 1 or 3 will happen.

Outcome 3 is identical to the previously calculated outcome 2. The chance is 25%.

The chance Outcome 1 will happen is simply 50%. Always. This was made clear by Thirk in the thread...

Add the two together, since it's Outcome 1 OR Outcome 3:

50% + 25% = 75%.

So yeah, 75% for sure. :D
 
*Scrolling over threads*

"Are you as stupid as the average WoW player?"

Me: Yes...

*Continue scrolling over threads*
 

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