How accurate are wowhead drop rates for dungeon drops?

[warcraftisgood]

I'm on my 80th run of underbog for my second Hatebringer listed as a 12% drop on wowhead. https://www.wowhead.com/item=24461/hatebringer I saw one on my 17th attempt, but after another 50+ attempts, I have not seen a single one drop. I've gotten the belt that's listed as a 1.7% drop on wow head 7 times, and my rep with cenarian expedition is nearly exalted taking into account that I've been skipping bosses/mops with stealth ring as well.
It's just statistically not possible that it's a 12% drop at this point. How accurate are the drop rates on wowhead? I'm at the point whre I might not farm more cause I'm so burnt out from a whole day of underbog.

 

[mirrorbender]

I'm pretty sure wowhead drop rates are just based on data collection from their addon, so the accuracy is only as good as the data. Obviously Hatebringer (for example) doesn't just have a flat 12% drop rate for everyone, it will never drop for any of the specs that can't use it in standard loot mode, and I would bet that its drop chance for the ones that can use it depends somewhat on the size of the loot table for that particular spec. I would double check that you have your loot specialization set correctly, that's the most obvious thing that could be screwing with your drop rates. But if that's not the issue, idk what is. In my experience, Hatebringer hasn't been a particularly rare drop from Ghaz'an.

 

[warcraftisgood]

Officially crossed 100 attempts.
My loot spec is Fury/Arms (I swap randomly between them when i'm running but it's the same items) There's only 5 items on the list and I've gotten all the other items at least 4-5 times each.
Hatebringer is top of the list though, and I'm sure it drops since I already got one but the second eludes me. Big sadge.
Sunkun cost fallacy is getting to me but if I don't get it after another 50ish runs i'll prob stop running for it.

 

[Robo]

It took me about 40 runs for hatebringer for my first one, and another 15 for my 2nd (fury).

My guess is:

1) Really bad luck
2) Faulty Wowhead data
3) Blizzard knows who all is xp-locked and secretly nerfs drop rates for certain items

 

[warcraftisgood]

UPDATE, second one finally dropped.
Brought a friend along who also speced fury, but I got the drop. 128th attempt, gg. I'm pissed but I have my hate bringer.

For comparison, I got invincible in around 90 atttempts. Absolutely bonkers drop rate on this thing.

 

[warcraftisgood]

It took me about 40 runs for hatebringer for my first one, and another 15 for my 2nd (fury).

My guess is:

1) Really bad luck
2) Faulty Wowhead data
3) Blizzard knows who all is xp-locked and secretly nerfs drop rates for certain items

There is no way blizzard does not do 3 after what I've been through lmao.

 

[Robo]

I'm pissed but I have my hate bringer.

They don't call it the hatebringer for nothin'

 

[Krater]

A lot of the item drop rates have been changed over the years, but wowhead just shows you the data it has collected over the last 20 years or whenever said boss was introduced.

Most of their data for BC is probably from back in 2007 since that is when most people were running those dungeons.

I also believe they have simplified their old dungeon drop rates...ie: if a boss has 10 items on it's loot table you just have a 10% chance for each. (Classic epic dungeon items are way easier to get than wowhead would have you believe). It's doubtful that the old xpac dungeons even have different drop rates for heroic and normal anymore.

If we go with this premise then hatebringer would have about a 9% chance to drop.

If you are clearing solo i think you have to take the available warrior loot - 5 pieces, so 20% chance at each, and divide this by 5 again since you only have a 20% chance to even get gear from each boss while solo, so about a 4% chance each kill to get it.

That would average about 25 kills to get it solo, so you still got some pretty bad RNG, but sometimes that just happens.

If possible I would suggest using legacy loot to speed up farming. If you're able to solo the dungeon quickly then just have a high level friend enter the instance real quick and then leave. It stays as legacy loot that way, and you get 2 random items from each boss scaled to your level. This would result in about an 18% chance to get it from each kill. If you're character is still a work in progress and soloing takes a while then even just having a high level friend carry you would still be better than soloing, resulting in about 9% chance each kill.

 

[warcraftisgood]

A lot of the item drop rates have been changed over the years, but wowhead just shows you the data it has collected over the last 20 years or whenever said boss was introduced.

Most of their data for BC is probably from back in 2007 since that is when most people were running those dungeons.

I also believe they have simplified their old dungeon drop rates...ie: if a boss has 10 items on it's loot table you just have a 10% chance for each. (Classic epic dungeon items are way easier to get than wowhead would have you believe). It's doubtful that the old xpac dungeons even have different drop rates for heroic and normal anymore.

If we go with this premise then hatebringer would have about a 9% chance to drop.

If you are clearing solo i think you have to take the available warrior loot - 5 pieces, so 20% chance at each, and divide this by 5 again since you only have a 20% chance to even get gear from each boss while solo, so about a 4% chance each kill to get it.

That would average about 25 kills to get it solo, so you still got some pretty bad RNG, but sometimes that just happens.

If possible I would suggest using legacy loot to speed up farming. If you're able to solo the dungeon quickly then just have a high level friend enter the instance real quick and then leave. It stays as legacy loot that way, and you get 2 random items from each boss scaled to your level. This would result in about an 18% chance to get it from each kill. If you're character is still a work in progress and soloing takes a while then even just having a high level friend carry you would still be better than soloing, resulting in about 9% chance each kill.

There's no way. i did not know legacy loot worked like that. I've been just running in with my friend while both of us are level 11 so he can also get a second chance at loot. Legacy would be a huge buff I didn't think about, gonna use that to farm the trinket i want from legion.
Thanks so much!