Frequency of the new (rare/epic) "upgrades"?

[Sin'dor]

I realize that our "data" at this point is little more than anecdotal... but do any of you hardcore sanity-deprived epic-chasing masochists think you've gradually acquired a "feel" for the probabilities at work?

For example:

• Are "NPC Drops" upgrading at the same rate as "Quest Rewards"?
• Are "Rare->Epic Upgrades" more frequent than "Uncommon->Epic Upgrades"?
• Does the ratio of Uncommons/Rares/Epics suggest that the Epics are "double-upgraded Uncommons", instead of a specific entry on some hypothetical "Upgrade Table"?

...and, most importantly, what do you think the actual odds are for any (or all) particular upgrades?

 

[Bestworld]

I realize that our "data" at this point is little more than anecdotal... but do any of you hardcore sanity-deprived epic-chasing masochists think you've gradually acquired a "feel" for the probabilities at work?

For example:

• Are "NPC Drops" upgrading at the same rate as "Quest Rewards"?
• Are "Rare->Epic Upgrades" more frequent than "Uncommon->Epic Upgrades"?
• Does the ratio of Uncommons/Rares/Epics suggest that the Epics are "double-upgraded Uncommons", instead of a specific entry on some hypothetical "Upgrade Table"?

...and, most importantly, what do you think the actual odds are for any (or all) particular upgrades?

View attachment 11024

My own personal experience so far:

-Quest drops seem to be more frequent in upgrades than NPC drops. This is to be expected since one is completely farmable, and the other is just a one chance RNG.

-Rare to epic upgrades seem a little more common than uncommon to epic, but it doesn't seem like a crazy difference actually, quite minimal in fact.

-"Double-upgraded Uncommons". In a way, but not entirely accurate in all cases. There seems just be an array of instances in how stats scale for certain items.

 

[Schalood]

I believe that Rare->Epic happens more frequent than Uncommon->Epic.

Gruff Swiftbite drops an uncommon pair of leggings which took me 550+ kills to obtain 2x in epic quality.
Lo'Grosh and Skhowl drop both uncommon and rare items which took me about 100+ on both to get 8x epic quality items. And surprisingly most of the items I got in epic quality from those two is normally uncommon items.

 

[Sin'dor]

...took me 550+ kills to obtain 2x in epic quality.

Damn... you're made of sterner stuff than I, my friend!

Lo'Grosh and Skhowl drop both uncommon and rare items which took me about 100+ on both to get 8x epic quality items. And surprisingly most of the items I got in epic quality from those two is normally uncommon items.

Unfortunately, just counting "kills" tells us more about the rarity of the items "dropping", than it does about the frequency of those items "upgrading"...