Captain Zvezdan's Lost Leg

[Rèvan]

Community,

I've been trying for a bit to obtain Captain Zvezdan's Lost Leg - https://www.wowhead.com/item=104321/captain-zvezdans-lost-leg - to surprise other 80-89's in duels with this fun item (this item wouldn't work in war games). However, I've killed Rattleskew (elite mob that drops this on Timeless Isle) >20 times and have never received any loot from him. The probability of receiving loot is >10% I think, so the overall probability that I'd receive something in 20 attempts is like 1 - 20C0 * (.9)^20 * (.1)^0 = 88%. I have perused the deepest recesses of the internet, and have been unable to determine if this mob is supposed to still drop loot at all in BFA. I was wondering if anyone else knew anything about this, because I wanna summon some damn pirates.

 

[Sin'dor]

[...] I've killed Rattleskew (elite mob that drops this on Timeless Isle) >20 times and have never received any loot from him. I was wondering if anyone else knew anything about this, because I wanna summon some damn pirates.

It's been a while... but I vaguely remember Blizzard adding extra loot-restrictions to the Timeless Isle back when people were forming huge raid groups and just mowing-down the whole damn zone.

If most of your attempts involved realm-hopping or other kinds of "grouping shenanigans", you might be able to "finesse" the situation by leaving the group just before the killing blow... but that's the only explanation I can think of.

Good Luck!

 

[ohti]

so the overall probability that I'd receive something in 20 attempts is like 1 - 20C0 * (.9)^20 * (.1)^0 = 88%

Not how that works

You have a 3% chance everytime according to wowhead database. Chances dont add up to one higher chance

Does the mob have any other loot in its table? If it does and you still cant loot it then its probably because you cant loot it at all and you're SOL on this item.

 

[Sin'dor]

so the overall probability that I'd receive something in 20 attempts is like 1 - 20C0 * (.9)^20 * (.1)^0 = 88%

Not how that works [...] Chances dont add up to one higher chance

Actually, his math checks-out (at least for the example he's using)...

He's assuming a 10% "chance of success" per attempt:

• Probability of success on his first attempt: 10%
• Probability of success on his 20th attempt: 10%
• Probability of at least one success at some point over the course of 20 attempts: 87.8423335%

...but yeah, the real question isn't if he's been "disproportionately unlucky". It's whether something might be preventing him from getting loot.