250% chance at getting fishing hat!!!

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glancealot

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Notice there is a time difference between the servers?



US realm list by datacenter - WoWWiki - Your guide to the World of Warcraft



so if you want to roll a new twink, why not roll 3 chars, level to 10, level their fishing, (combined would probably take 9 hours at most), one on pacific server, one on central, one on eastern server. pick PVE servers too.





you fish from 2-4 on eastern server(say, Dalaran server), then sign on central server(say, Dawnbringer), fish from 3-4, then sign on pacific(say, Aerie Peak), fish from 2 to 4.



so instead of fishing 2 hours every Saturday, you fish for 5 hours, after you get fishing hat on any of these chars, just transfer him to your main's server, or just start from scratch.



so if you catch 160 tasties normally(according to feening), you can catch 400 tasties every saturday and have a much much better shot at fishing hat!!! (400/160=250%)
 
and you only need to level to 5 for fishing
 
also dont you still have the same chance to get the fish on each cast, no matter how many casts you do or toons you do it on its the same chance per cast. so idk where you got 400/160 = 250...but im sure you can explain it to us lowly people using your grad school logic
 
Falkor said:
also dont you still have the same chance to get the fish on each cast, no matter how many casts you do or toons you do it on its the same chance per cast. so idk where you got 400/160 = 250...but im sure you can explain it to us lowly people using your grad school logic
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I was going to say this too, but I figured someone would complain about me being a meany pants. So instead, I'll thank your post.
 
Duckhunt said:
Or just grind guild rep and get your BOA helms which are BiS for most classes. :)
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I wouldn't count out the hat. While BoA is BiS for most classes, most competitive players will also have a stamina set in case they're on FC duty.
 
Falkor said:
also dont you still have the same chance to get the fish on each cast, no matter how many casts you do or toons you do it on its the same chance per cast. so idk where you got 400/160 = 250...but im sure you can explain it to us lowly people using your grad school logic
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Gambler's Fallacy only really applies when progressing between single iterations of the same Game Of Chance, assuming the odds inherent within the game is not effected by the previous iteration's results (such as "scaling odds").



Your odds will increase, however, when measured on a scale of multiple sequential iterations. While your odds on *any single* cast never change, your odds for receiving at least one desirable outcome will increase when you repeat the event more times.



To illustrate it, let's say that I'm flipping a coin once, and I want heads. Well on 1 iteration of this event, I have a 50% chance to be successful. However, if I perform 1,000,000 coin flips, you can see that my odds to receive at least 1 "Heads" will incredibly improve. Of course, on any particular flip during those million iterations, I still only have a 50% chance to see heads.



And while I'm pretty sure the 5 hours of fishing compared to 2 hours doesn't equate to a 250% increased chance (it's a bit less lol), it'll nonetheless improve your chances to fish more.
 
hmm idk
 
glancealot said:
250% chance at getting fishing hat!!!

Notice there is a time difference between the servers?



US realm list by datacenter - WoWWiki - Your guide to the World of Warcraft



so if you want to roll a new twink, why not roll 3 chars, level to 10, level their fishing, (combined would probably take 9 hours at most), one on pacific server, one on central, one on eastern server. pick PVE servers too.





you fish from 2-4 on eastern server(say, Dalaran server), then sign on central server(say, Dawnbringer), fish from 3-4, then sign on pacific(say, Aerie Peak), fish from 2 to 4.



so instead of fishing 2 hours every Saturday, you fish for 5 hours, after you get fishing hat on any of these chars, just transfer him to your main's server, or just start from scratch.



so if you catch 160 tasties normally(according to feening), you can catch 400 tasties every saturday and have a much much better shot at fishing hat!!! (400/160=250%)
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This whole post is wrong. There drop rate will never, ever, ever change as a result of something you do, and neither will the percent in favor of catching a fish.





GG.
 
If the fish were unique and therefore unable to drop a second time if it were to be in your bags, your chance of getting an uncaught fish increase by 33.333-> % per fish (which would still put it at about 0.8333325 per cast if you caught 1 fish) then worst case scenario would be you catching the 2 that you didn't want, your chance would then be at about 2.7774 per cast (using the rumored .25% drop rate)











However they are not unique so the drop-rate will always = "k" ( a constant independent variable) GG.
 
your chance of getting a fishing hat per cast is, 0.25%



let's say if you fish for one hour, you get off 40 cast (80 per hour according to feening, but let's be safe)



so if you fish for 2 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is



1-(1-0.25%)^80 = 18%



but if you fish for 5 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is



1-(1-0.25%)^200 = 39%



what's 39/18?



2.2 which is 220%,



so like the previous poster said, slightly less than 250%.



edit: when i said previous poster, i meant crosswurd.



edit: regarding why level 10, i thought it was obvious...because you can do the fishing daily.
 
glancealot said:
edit: regarding why level 10, i thought it was obvious...because you can do the fishing daily.
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RNG is RNG. Your point is invalid.



@the part i quoted: why does this matter? WBFH was nerfed to the point that it isnt even AS good as Goggles.
 
fine level 5 then...



i just thought Weather-Beaten Journal - Item - World of Warcraft would help...



if you don't get the logic behind my OP, think about it this way, if you could fish from 2 to 7, would you stop at 4 because "RNG is RNG, Your point is invalid"?
 
glancealot said:
your chance of getting a fishing hat per cast is, 0.25%



let's say if you fish for one hour, you get off 40 cast (80 per hour according to feening, but let's be safe)



so if you fish for 2 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is



1-(1-0.25%)^80 = 18%



but if you fish for 5 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is



1-(1-0.25%)^200 = 39%



what's 39/18?



2.2 which is 220%,



so like the previous poster said, slightly less than 250%.



edit: when i said previous poster, i meant crosswurd.



edit: regarding why level 10, i thought it was obvious...because you can do the fishing daily.
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You = wrong.

if you read what I wrote in two posts, you can clearly see that what I was trying to tell you in two different ways is obvious. Let's make it more clear. "Your chance never increases, no matter what you do. If you believe for one second that it isn't about a .25% chance on every single cast even if you could cast for 24 straight hours, HEY GUESS WHAT?! It's still .25%, on your 1st cast and your 9984th cast"



"so if you fish for 2 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is 1-(1-0.25%)^80 = 18%" <--- wrong, it's .25% per cast

"but if you fish for 5 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is 1-(1-0.25%)^200 = 39%" <--- wrong, it's still .25% per cast

"what's 39/18? 2.2 which is 220%" <--- But you're actually wrong, it's a .25% chance

"so like the previous poster said, slightly less than 250%." <-- I agree, 0.25% is slightly less than 250%

WINNING
 
Never in my life have I seen such bad math done. And I am talking about every post b4 me.
 
crosswurd said:
Gambler's Fallacy only really applies when progressing between single iterations of the same Game Of Chance, assuming the odds inherent within the game is not effected by the previous iteration's results (such as "scaling odds").



Your odds will increase, however, when measured on a scale of multiple sequential iterations. While your odds on *any single* cast never change, your odds for receiving at least one desirable outcome will increase when you repeat the event more times.



To illustrate it, let's say that I'm flipping a coin once, and I want heads. Well on 1 iteration of this event, I have a 50% chance to be successful. However, if I perform 1,000,000 coin flips, you can see that my odds to receive at least 1 "Heads" will incredibly improve. Of course, on any particular flip during those million iterations, I still only have a 50% chance to see heads.



And while I'm pretty sure the 5 hours of fishing compared to 2 hours doesn't equate to a 250% increased chance (it's a bit less lol), it'll nonetheless improve your chances to fish more.
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makes sense.
 
Mochabad said:
You = wrong.

if you read what I wrote in two posts, you can clearly see that what I was trying to tell you in two different ways is obvious. Let's make it more clear. "Your chance never increases, no matter what you do. If you believe for one second that it isn't about a .25% chance on every single cast even if you could cast for 24 straight hours, HEY GUESS WHAT?! It's still .25%, on your 1st cast and your 9984th cast"



"so if you fish for 2 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is 1-(1-0.25%)^80 = 18%" <--- wrong, it's .25% per cast

"but if you fish for 5 hours, your chance of getting a fishing hat is 1-(1-0.25%)^200 = 39%" <--- wrong, it's still .25% per cast

"what's 39/18? 2.2 which is 220%" <--- But you're actually wrong, it's a .25% chance

"so like the previous poster said, slightly less than 250%." <-- I agree, 0.25% is slightly less than 250%

WINNING
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so where did you get this .25% chance from then? if you say wowhead, then wowhead has it by the amount of fishing hat divided by total casts, which is exactly what my last post was saying.



in fact, by your logic, i claim it's not 0.25%, it's actually 50%, i know it sounds ridiculous, but you can never prove me wrong because i can just play this "it's RNG" card.



you are confused about probability per cast vs probability over n casts where n is a natural number greater than 2.



i actually TA'd probability 2000 so i am not surprised people make this mistake lol.
 
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