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The standard deviation on the probabilities is relatively low due to the required number of trials so luck (variance) isn't a huge factor in this case. While it's possible you won't get it after 100,000 boxes, its EXTREMELY unlikely - go buy a lottery ticket at that point.

Ah I missed that. Then you would need to open 347,500 boxes for a 99.9% chance of receiving the dagger and 35,000 for a 50% chance.

Assuming exactly a .01% Drop rate: 7000 boxes to have a 50% chance of receiving it. 42,000 boxes to have a 99% chance of receiving it. So your hours to BVB would be: 7000 / (Lockbox drop %) / (Lockbox/hr) and that's how many hours you need to play to get a BVB. Just buy it with cash.

PMed

Just wanted to summarize your post for the members' benefits. No no, thank me later.

I'll try to get in on this with my FOLM rogue

No I'm saying once you ambush the druid is going to bail. Why the hell would they sit there and face tank your 1337 damage? The scenario was intentionally simplified. Again, Druids peel for themselves so its irrelevant if DMH procs on his supporters. And if his supports trinket a three second...

/cheers /cheers /cheers /cheers /cheers /cheers

You're falsely representing my argument. A "2 DPS increase" is distinctly different than the instantaneous damage output I'm putting value on. I'm going to lay my argument out completely so it makes sense: 1) Druids are the only viable FC in the current meta because of their mobility kit and...

39 GFed Rogue Working on getting the EPL Ring. Need to do some testing with Boots but I think Dashing Strike Treads are the clear winner. Mongoose is garbage now so I'll probably try Dancing Steel or EF. Also, I think there are probably better OHs now. Is my glove agility enchant BIS? It's...

Your straw man isn't going to work. I'll even do the math for you to prove it. Charged Gear of Agility scales to 10 Agility in BGs. Ambush does 315% of you average damage range. Let's assume the FC has 5 stacks. Let's assume a 2.8 weapon. That 10 AP is giving you 10 Top and Bottom end...

What's the best scaled wrist enchant now? I have a pair of Branded Leather Bracers with +12 AP which may be BIS if there aren't any other good options

Some notes on rogue enchants: Mongoose seems pretty bad now since we're only getting a franction of the agility and the proc rate is so low. EF seems like the way to go. Is 12 AP to bracers GFed? Vanquisher's Sword in the OH probably isn't BIS anymore. A fast OH like the heirloom with EF is...

At least 5 people on at all times with upwards of 20-30 during peak hours. It's pretty solid.

The multiplier bonus from flag stacks makes offensive stats significantly stronger if te flag needs returning. It's not about the dps increase it's about doing as much damage in the opener as you can. Again, dmh is Bis for rogues in all functions except the one they're best at.

Yeah no doubt - I'm just theory crafting. Most F2P hunters backpedal ffs.

If there's LOS the hunter just hides and lets the pet solo the mage. Out in the open I could see a mage winning against a poorly geared hunter.

That's all mage specs. Sheep and run is your only out.

Rogues usually perform best as flag returners in organized groups. Your opener burst is your best asset so a ring with no offensive stats isn't the best. It's fine for pugging if you're just farming mid and shit.

If the mage is paired with any class that puts out decent pressure, which basically any of them at the moment, the priest is going to be forced to eat a CS at minimum which is all it takes to land a kill at 29s.