EU+US Absolutely absurd predictions that I think might actually happen

I never understood why the gane shop was not available to f2p. Money is money. Also if I was over the Pet Battle team, I would petition hard for it to be available to f2p. Then I'd have my team churning out moderately strong pets regularly for the game shop. Blizzard could thank me in my bonus check.

I think the level 20 cap will stay no matter where it lands in the vanilla level range. I believe this because either they'll forget and then decide it's not worth the bother or just not worth the bother from the get go.

Given that f2p is all about dangling the carrot to get people to buy the game, im kinda shocked we aren't able to level pets to like... lvl 3.

And I think the f2p level remaining 20 after a squish is possible. Though I think it's equally likely that it stays at 20, blizzard says "oh wait" and then they change it back to 10 and everyone's hosed because banked XP leveled us
 
Given that f2p is all about dangling the carrot to get people to buy the game, im kinda shocked we aren't able to level pets to like... lvl 3.

Yeah, I really think Blizz missed the boat with Pet Battles to be able attract new/non-MMO players to WoW.
 
I'm necro'ing this thread from a year ago, because I feel like writing, and because I want @Chops to start a similar thread before the Shadowlands beta launches. So, here's an analysis of what I got right, and what I got wrong.

Things that won't happen:

1) A level squish i.e. cutting 120 levels down to 60 levels, and placing non-endgame players somewhere in between. This won't happen for three reasons. First, Blizzard has never done anything to the game to make it look like leveling goes slower. Second, this would be much more of a technical undertaking than doing a stats squish. Third, Blizzard won't want to give up higher levels as a large differentiator between Classic and modern WoW.

I'm still in shock at how wrong I was about this. The implications of the Shadowlands stat squish range wide and long.

2) Updating the PvP scoreboard. Unlike every other PvP game of theirs, devs on the WoW team for whatever reason do not prioritize stats feedback to shape player behavior. If it hasn't been done by now, it will never happen. The same goes for non-rated matchmaking improvements, so this negative prediction gives a two-for-one.

Got this one, but let's be honest -- this was an easy call.

3) The re-merging of XP-off and XP-on queues. This is it, folks. Blizzard learned its lesson on what the WoW community wants, and stat templates ain't it. Blizzard won't make that mistake again, and because of the perception that gear matters, our queues will remain separate regardless of future stat squish for at least the next three years.

I suppose the jury's still out on this since we have two years to go, but I stand by my call on this.

Things that will happen:

1) Blizzard will include battleground bots to help battlegrounds pop, starting with epic battlegrounds. They've already done previews of "vs. Bot games" as an event in Arathi Basin, a multi-objective battleground. Starting with the larger battlegrounds will make it more difficult for players to distinguish who is a bot and who is not, and help foster player acceptance. If Blizzard thought about it, they would start with XP-off epic battlegrounds because XP-off players would see that as a new and interesting challenge, but that particular wrinkle belongs in the "things that won't happen" category. Longer battleground queue times are a big enough issue for levelers that Blizzard will make this happen.

Nothing yet, but I stand by this. We'll see Blizzard bots in retail (non-Classic) WoW in (at this point) the next two years.

2) Classic WoW will be a hit, for the same reason people love twinking: there are parts of WoW that are a royal pain in the ass, and such hardship brings people together to form a community. A lot of players keep saying how terrible vanilla was, and aren't getting that people loved vanilla precisely for how terrible it was.

Nailed it. Which makes it all the more a shame how much bots are apparently destroying Classic endgame.

3) While Classic WoW will create an overall growth in the WoW playerbase, it will also reduce modern WoW numbers such that Blizzard will merge more modern servers to maintain population density.

While technically a couple of years await this prediction, I think it would have happened by now if Blizzard were going to do it. I'm calling this one wrong.

4) After the initial year of Classic WoW, interest in both Classic AND modern WoW will drop enough that Blizzard will slow down developmental resources for both games. Populations on both games will dwindle to a small but stable "rest home for gamers" level.

Dead wrong. Blizzard is into retail WoW for the long term, the most important implication of the Shadowlands level squish.

GRAND FINALE PREDICTION (this one will take about five years):

Some dedicated player or group will hack together a VR mod for World of Warcraft that will figure out how to leverage the complexity of WoW's interface even though you can't see your hands on the controls. That second part is way more important than the VR part. Then, WoW will experience a small resurgence of interest from players looking for a whole new way to experience the game.

This has four years remaining on the clock, and the only way I believe this prediction doesn't happen is if Blizzard actually beats the mod community to it first.
 
[QUOTE="Chops, post: 1014168, member: 20904"
3. Transmog looks will be no longer limited by level.[/QUOTE]
If we are gonna be 10-50s scaled, all the mogs maybe gonna be avaiable for F2P`s. They should be.
 
Wonder how SMF would go for fury even after the 8% damage buff. After the level squish (and it looks like a number squish too)
Would 1h weapons have single digit numbers? (Like, caster loom levels of damage)

If they made it scale more with haste as a bonus i think it could see alot of use in engame too, if you stack alot of haste endgame, you can use SMF, if you stack str use Titan Grip
 
Wonder how SMF would go for fury even after the 8% damage buff. After the level squish (and it looks like a number squish too)
Would 1h weapons have single digit numbers? (Like, caster loom levels of damage)

If they made it scale more with haste as a bonus i think it could see alot of use in engame too, if you stack alot of haste endgame, you can use SMF, if you stack str use Titan Grip
for f2p it wont matter. both SMF and TG are level 14 abilities. Vets and F2P fury warriors are gonna be swinging 1 handers without the dmg buff.
 
for f2p it wont matter. both SMF and TG are level 14 abilities. Vets and F2P fury warriors are gonna be swinging 1 handers without the dmg buff.
... i thought this xpac was bringing more abilities back :D

bamboozled by Blizard
 
I forgot the original post in this thread was almost four years old. So since the latest necro is my fault, and since I'm impatient this week and can't stop talking, imma double down and put my latest "Absolutely absurd predictions that I think might actually happen" here. Some of these didn't seem so absurd at first, but then I realized I really have no clue what direction Blizzard is going with WoW, so screw it. Here we go.

Things that won't happen:

Battleground brackets won't change from 10-19, 20-29, etc. Blizzard has nothing worthwhile to gain from doing so. A merged scaled 10-59 PvP bracket, which would essentially function as party sync for all PvPers, would buckle under the sheer disparity in learned spells, abilities, and talents in non-endgame PvP battlegrounds. Blizzard may appreciate shorter queue times for PvP, but the level squish will accomplish that by itself since 2x as many levelers will fit into a bracket. Likewise, going back to 10-14, 15-19, etc. won't do anything for most players, nor for Blizzard.

All of today's sub-70 twinks will level up to the far end of their bracket in Shadowlands if they want to twink for battlegrounds. Older twinks at 70 and above may find good enough reasons to stay at the levels they end up in Shadowlands, but lower bracket and midbracket twinks will not. Not nostalgia, not grandfathered gear, not nuthin.

Blizzard will not fix nor otherwise enhance the utility of battlegrounds scoreboards. Again. 15 years, Blizzard...15 years.

Things that will happen:

We will see remarkably similar twink gearsets for all non-Shadowlands brackets i.e. level 49 and below. If we look at the current 60-69 and 70-79 brackets, we see why. Non-raid socket gear consistently overstats beyond all other gear, and the few non-socket exceptions (typically quest gear) scale strongly between brackets. That's why my current 69 and 79 resto shamans wear the same gear in 12 out of 16 slots. Once the stat squish happens, I expect an e.g. 19 resto shaman to look very similar gear-wise to a 49 resto shaman, because the sources of this overstatted gear are all available to 19s and up. If F2Ps find a way to get socketable gems, F2Ps too will fall in line. Within a month of everyone getting excited to see how gear compares from all of these re-scaled expansion areas, not even epic gear procs nor tertiary stat procs will be able to compete with overstatted gear from TBC and Wrath. Want to know what your twink will wear in Shadowlands? Take a look at some 79 armories.

Along the same vein, with the possible exception of grandfathered head/shoulder/leg enchants, grandfathered gear will get obliterated i.e. rendered completely obsolete. Current socket gear will outclass everything.

Today's 79s will be the only twinks in Shadowlands that won't have to do a complete regear for every slot, since they will become Shadowlands' 29s. It's entirely possible some 79s won't change a single piece of gear. 69s might get screwed by not being able to redo a couple of quests to get better-scaled gear, but that will be a matter of pride rather than any significant stats impact in a battleground.

Several (very) old-school 59s, 60s, 69s, and 70s are going to roll up as Shadowlands 29s with grandfathered enchantments they stored away for years.


None of any of the above will matter, because...(drum roll)...F2P twinking will absolutely explode in Shadowlands. Maybe F2Ps cap at 10, maybe they cap at 20. Maybe F2Ps can use Chromie to explore other expansions, maybe they can't. Maybe F2P battlegrounds will remain in XP-on, maybe they'll get shifted to XP-off again. Understand that none of these questions matter, because the worst case scenario is that F2Ps will simply do some regearing and retain the same number of abilities as before, and the best case scenario is that they get access to an order of magnitude more content, including heroics (which also drop gems for socket gear), and more abilities, and get shoved into an XP-off bracket where people who decide to prey on F2Ps won't be able to attain more than a 15% stat advantage. I can't emphasize this enough -- it's entirely possible that F2P twinking in Shadowlands might accidentally become the best twinking experience in the history of WoW. Credit to everyone who brought up all of these F2P possibilities before, because I'm sure I'm not the first to talk about any of this.


The grand prediction:

WoW is comin' to consoles, yo. If you told me that at any time before this year, I wouldn't have even dignified the assertion with a response. Okay, that's a lie, I would have written fourteen pages. But I can write fourteen pages about dried apricots. Back on topic, Bellular's analysis sold me 100%: Blizzard put in more solid controller code for the Shadowlands WoW alpha for console gaming, and other complex MMOs proved that console gaming can be worthwhile to players (and hence, profitable). Beyond that, Blizzard's willingness to figure out how to get Overwatch working on the Switch shows Blizzard is willing to take on difficult UI and UX design issues when launching a PC game on consoles. We won't see WoW on consoles with Shadowlands, but it'll happen by the following expansion.
 
Battleground brackets won't change from 10-19, 20-29, etc. Blizzard has nothing worthwhile to gain from doing so. A merged scaled 10-59 PvP bracket, which would essentially function as party sync for all PvPers, would buckle under the sheer disparity in learned spells, abilities, and talents in non-endgame PvP battlegrounds. Blizzard may appreciate shorter queue times for PvP, but the level squish will accomplish that by itself since 2x as many levelers will fit into a bracket. Likewise, going back to 10-14, 15-19, etc. won't do anything for most players, nor for Blizzard.
I think its equally likely that we see x0-x9 brackets as we see x0-x4/x5-x9 brackets. Theres an enormous power disparity between 0 and 9 in any bracket that more or less precludes pvp below the x5-x6 mark. I can see a world where levelers complain about that. Though, I can also see Blizzard saying "fuck it, leveling take like 3 hours, just level out". So no idea there. But also I think you're right that a Korraks style bracket system is just unworkable... UNLESS! ...it exists only for epic BGs.

Blizzard will not fix nor otherwise enhance the utility of battlegrounds scoreboards. Again. 15 years, Blizzard...15 years.
I can vividly remember talking with you and Yoube about this on the podcast like... 8 years ago. Its the one thing Blizz could do to greatly improve pug pvp and its just never gonna change. I hate everything.

We will see remarkably similar twink gearsets for all non-Shadowlands brackets i.e. level 49 and below... Want to know what your twink will wear in Shadowlands? Take a look at some 79 armories.
Spot. fucking. on.

None of any of the above will matter, because F2P twinking will absolutely explode in Shadowlands... it's entirely possible that F2P twinking in Shadowlands might accidentally become the best twinking experience in the history of WoW. Credit to everyone who brought up all of these F2P possibilities before, because I'm sure I'm not the first to talk about any of this.
I've been talking with @ohti about this a lot and I really do think we're looking at the (next) golden age of F2P twinking. There's going to be an insane amount of things to do both for pvp and pve. Its gonna be awesome and I am hella excited.

The grand prediction:

WoW is comin' to consoles, yo... Beyond that, Blizzard's willingness to figure out how to get Overwatch working on the Switch shows Blizzard is willing to take on difficult UI and UX design issues when launching a PC game on consoles. We won't see WoW on consoles with Shadowlands, but it'll happen by the following expansion.
Im going to have, at minimum, 20 keybinds on my level 10 warrior. My fingers already hurt thinking about console gamers trying to map that many abilities and modifiers on a console controller.
 
trying to map that many abilities
map abilities to keyboard , target with tilt wheel and buttons on this beauty, still works, only one i've ever owned
https://www.amazon.com/Logitech-Gam...ild=1&keywords=g5+mouse&qid=1592882139&sr=8-4
g5.jpg

[doublepost=1592883573,1592882471][/doublepost]
map abilities to keyboard , target with tilt wheel and buttons on this beauty, still works, only one i've ever owned
https://www.amazon.com/Logitech-Gam...ild=1&keywords=g5+mouse&qid=1592882139&sr=8-4
g5.jpg
 
I've been talking with @ohti about this a lot and I really do think we're looking at the (next) golden age of F2P twinking. There's going to be an insane amount of things to do both for pvp and pve. Its gonna be awesome and I am hella excited.

The more I looked into it, the more my eyes bugged out. With the exception of Old Hillsbrad, so many dungeons coming available right at level 10 means that F2Ps might get access to BiS gear from TBC and Wrath via LFG without needing Chromie. In theory, walk-in level for heroics would start at 27 and would prevent F2Ps from getting gem drops, but if jewelcrafting allows multiple expansions capped at 100 skill, that opens up expansion JC recipes, and then it's up to enterprising F2Ps to find ways into other expansion lands without Chromie to get gem mats. And that's not even touching other professions like enchanting.

This could become a point of contention among F2Ps. If we need to have a lock summon us to an expansion area, or if an F2P account linked to a vet account opens up Chromie for the F2P account, does that count as a true F2P, or does that fall into the category of vet, since the F2P had no way of getting to other expansions without outside-the-game help or access?

I really see Blizzard capping F2Ps at level 10. With so much available at that level, even without access to Chromie, I just can't imagine Blizzard opening up even more of the game to F2Ps by taking F2Ps to level 20 in Shadowlands. However, Blizzard's smarter with metrics than people give them credit for. It's possible that even though Blizzard knows certain players simply won't pay for the game, Blizzard may want F2Ps to populate the lower end of the leveling world to give paying levelers more people to play with in dungeons.

Im going to have, at minimum, 20 keybinds on my level 10 warrior. My fingers already hurt thinking about console gamers trying to map that many abilities and modifiers on a console controller.

I thought so too, but then consider that if we map all four shoulder buttons as modifier keys, that provides 16 options for each face button. Four face buttons, then, gives us 64 slots. Even if we only map 2 modifiers onto the shoulder buttons, that gives four options for each of the four face buttons, plus four options for the remaining 2 shoulder buttons, for a total of 24 options. The ergonomics of shoulder button modifiers are a helluva lot better than keyboard modifiers. But man oh man, I wouldn't want to try to use a console controller for mouseover healing.

If I played melee, I would bind two face buttons for abilities, one for targeting options, and one for item use. ...After a week, I'd throw my controller out a window, and plug in my keyboard and mouse.

Targeting is the real drawback of a console controller, and targeting remains WoW's best technical advantage over other MMOs. But let's be honest, most WoW players don't actually use much in the way of targeting.
 
The more I looked into it, the more my eyes bugged out. With the exception of Old Hillsbrad, so many dungeons coming available right at level 10 means that F2Ps might get access to BiS gear from TBC and Wrath via LFG without needing Chromie. In theory, walk-in level for heroics would start at 27 and would prevent F2Ps from getting gem drops, but if jewelcrafting allows multiple expansions capped at 100 skill, that opens up expansion JC recipes, and then it's up to enterprising F2Ps to find ways into other expansion lands without Chromie to get gem mats. And that's not even touching other professions like enchanting.

This could become a point of contention among F2Ps. If we need to have a lock summon us to an expansion area, or if an F2P account linked to a vet account opens up Chromie for the F2P account, does that count as a true F2P, or does that fall into the category of vet, since the F2P had no way of getting to other expansions without outside-the-game help or access?

I really see Blizzard capping F2Ps at level 10. With so much available at that level, even without access to Chromie, I just can't imagine Blizzard opening up even more of the game to F2Ps by taking F2Ps to level 20 in Shadowlands. However, Blizzard's smarter with metrics than people give them credit for. It's possible that even though Blizzard knows certain players simply won't pay for the game, Blizzard may want F2Ps to populate the lower end of the leveling world to give paying levelers more people to play with in dungeons.



I thought so too, but then consider that if we map all four shoulder buttons as modifier keys, that provides 16 options for each face button. Four face buttons, then, gives us 64 slots. Even if we only map 2 modifiers onto the shoulder buttons, that gives four options for each of the four face buttons, plus four options for the remaining 2 shoulder buttons, for a total of 24 options. The ergonomics of shoulder button modifiers are a helluva lot better than keyboard modifiers. But man oh man, I wouldn't want to try to use a console controller for mouseover healing.

If I played melee, I would bind two face buttons for abilities, one for targeting options, and one for item use. ...After a week, I'd throw my controller out a window, and plug in my keyboard and mouse.

Targeting is the real drawback of a console controller, and targeting remains WoW's best technical advantage over other MMOs. But let's be honest, most WoW players don't actually use much in the way of targeting.

Are they removing gems from TBC norm drops? Because they all already have that.
 
The more I looked into it, the more my eyes bugged out. With the exception of Old Hillsbrad, so many dungeons coming available right at level 10 means that F2Ps might get access to BiS gear from TBC and Wrath via LFG without needing Chromie. In theory, walk-in level for heroics would start at 27 and would prevent F2Ps from getting gem drops, but if jewelcrafting allows multiple expansions capped at 100 skill, that opens up expansion JC recipes, and then it's up to enterprising F2Ps to find ways into other expansion lands without Chromie to get gem mats. And that's not even touching other professions like enchanting.
So much of this depends on whats available at level 10 verses whats gated behind explicit starter account restrictions and whats gated behind gold cap restrictions. Much like vets can currently get to 300, f2p only get 100. Can we assume that means f2p cap at 25 or thirty for expansion profs? No expansion profs? What if they're "available" but cost 12 gold?
This could become a point of contention among F2Ps. If we need to have a lock summon us to an expansion area, or if an F2P account linked to a vet account opens up Chromie for the F2P account, does that count as a true F2P, or does that fall into the category of vet, since the F2P had no way of getting to other expansions without outside-the-game help or access?
I've always been of the position that if your f2p can do it, then it can do it. But deciphering "pure f2p" from F2P with a second account, versus linked is for tryhard EU kids.
 
Do socketable gems drop from normal dungeons? I don't recall that, but if they do, that could open some doors (and a TON of grind) for F2Ps.
iirc theyre on par with the intro JC gems for TBC? Which makes them more or less on par (assuming predictable scaling which lololololol) with gems bought for marks from pvp vendor in SW
 

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