EU+US Item Upgrade Chance

Aelobin

DK Twink (80 / 85 / 101)
I made a program to scan the EU and US auction houses in the hope of getting a more accurate estimate of what the chances are for items to gain upgrades (+ilvl / socket / tertiary stat).

Total BoEs: 31332
With sockets: 3378
With tertiary stat: 2586
835: 12767
840: 4279
845: 1862
855: 244
860: 116
865: 47
870: 20
875: 7
880: 0
885: 1
890: 0
895: 0

So the chance of getting a socket is about 10.8% and a tertiary stat around 8.3%. It would make sense that these are probably just 10% each.

The ratios between the different ilvls shows the following estimates for each +5 ilvl upgrade: 33.5%, 43.5%, 47.5%, 40.5%, 42.6%, 35%. So probably somewhere around the average of 40%? I skipped 850s because the previous ilvl cap would've skewed the results and the data will be a little biased because people might be more inclined to use the higher ilvls themselves if it's better than what they have.

If those estimates are close to being correct, this table should give an idea of what chance there is of a BoE getting each combination of upgrades:
KnpP3zS.png


And this is the chance of getting each ilvl or better:
MGRMd18.png
 
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Very interesting stuff Aelobin, couple of questions:
1) Any chance of making your search tool open source :D
2) Does your search listed above just include BOE's equipable by 101s? Or all Legion BOE Epics.

I've been trying to parse out the item syntax for different stat combinations on gear I'm after for TSM searches, and I've had some luck, but can't find any identifiers for items better Warforged ilvl850 + Socket.
 
Very interesting stuff Aelobin, couple of questions:
1) Any chance of making your search tool open source :D
2) Does your search listed above just include BOE's equipable by 101s? Or all Legion BOE Epics.

I've been trying to parse out the item syntax for different stat combinations on gear I'm after for TSM searches, and I've had some luck, but can't find any identifiers for items better Warforged ilvl850 + Socket.
1) Probably not - the code is a mess and relies on some library I wrote 5+ years ago :p
2) The total/sockets/tertiary numbers include all Legion BoEs but the ilvl breakdown is only items which require level 101 (except maybe the Oceanstrider cloak, that one seems to be bugged).

I got my bonus id's from Wowhead:
40 = Avoidance
41 = Leech
42 = Speed
43 = Indestructible
1808 = Socket
1497 = 835
1502 = 840
1507 = 845
1512 = 850
1517 = 855
1522 = 860
1527 = 865
1532 = 870
1537 = 875
1542 = 880
1547 = 885
1552 = 890
1557 = 895
3398 = scales with level (used for lvl 99 twinks)
 
870+ items currently on EU:
  • 870 Treia's Handcrafted Shroud - alakir 144,000g Socket
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - arathi 250,000g Speed
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - ashenvale 151,000g
  • 875 Mir's Enthralling Grasp - blackhand 565,000g
  • 875 Cyno's Mantle of Sin - booty-bay 92,500g
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - burning-blade 399,999g Speed
  • 875 Six-Feather Fan - cthun 500,000g
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - confrerie-du-thorium 536,886g Socket Leech
  • 870 Marfisi's Giant Censer - conseil-des-ombres 100,000g Socket
  • 875 Shokell's Grim Cinch - deathguard 201,000g Speed
  • 870 Treia's Handcrafted Shroud - destromath 500,000g Socket
  • 875 Shokell's Grim Cinch - dun-modr 199,999g Speed
  • 875 Mir's Enthralling Grasp - emerald-dream 263,047g
  • 870 Marfisi's Giant Censer - galakrond 270,000g Socket
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - grom 720,000g Speed
  • 875 Cyno's Mantle of Sin - hyjal 275,000g
  • 875 Cyno's Mantle of Sin - kazzak 555,555g
  • 870 Treia's Handcrafted Shroud - magtheridon 399,999g Socket
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - ravencrest 449,999g Socket Leech
  • 875 Mir's Enthralling Grasp - silvermoon 549,999g
 
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I'm actually surprised those 870/875's aren't MUCH higher prices, mostly because they are likely still upgrades for 95% of WoW Players, let alone 101 Twink items. Don't get me wrong, 500k sucks balls for some of those but still, I'd expect a million+ TBH. Once we get 1 or 2 Tiers deeper into Legion I'd wager all the 101 World Epics will drop in prices dramatically as Players will be sitting at an average iLvL over 900 (110's obv).
 
wow i wish i could find those items on the US servers. i would buy them all.
US items for ya:
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - arthas 1,000,000g Speed
  • 870 Claud's War-Ravaged Boots - auchindoun 175,000g Socket
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - burning-blade 350,000g Socket Leech
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - cenarion-circle 300,000g
  • 870 Marfisi's Giant Censer - dawnbringer 200,000 Socket
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - drakthul 399,999g Socket Leech
  • 875 Cyno's Mantle of Sin - emerald-dream 699,999g
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - illidan 666,666g
  • 875 Shokell's Grim Cinch - illidan 400,000g Speed
  • 875 Treia's Handcrafted Shroud - kirin-tor 150,000g Speed
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - lightbringer 600,000g Speed
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - quelthalas 350,000g Socket Leech
  • 875 Mir's Enthralling Grasp - sargeras 699,999g
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - sargeras 375,000g
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - wyrmrest-accord 599,999g Socket Leech
Keep meaning to make the output more readable but haven't got round to rewriting my scanner yet >.<
 
Well, looks like if 885 is possible then 895 isn't as out of reach as we might have thought. Good luck coming up with the Gold/luck to get a full set of 895 + Tertiary + Socket though, even over the entirety of Legion. @Aelobin I can read your output just fine.

Side note, I'm of the opinion that a Body piece (that's your Armor type) is of a higher value than a +5 or even +10 iLvL off-pc due to Main Stat, and to a lesser extent, Armor. I'd be interested in the math of it, if anyone has done that yet.
 
5x 885 marfisi's with speed across both EU and US. not sure if coincidence or drops arent completely random
 
US items for ya:
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - arthas 1,000,000g Speed
  • 870 Claud's War-Ravaged Boots - auchindoun 175,000g Socket
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - burning-blade 350,000g Socket Leech
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - cenarion-circle 300,000g
  • 870 Marfisi's Giant Censer - dawnbringer 200,000 Socket
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - drakthul 399,999g Socket Leech
  • 875 Cyno's Mantle of Sin - emerald-dream 699,999g
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - illidan 666,666g
  • 875 Shokell's Grim Cinch - illidan 400,000g Speed
  • 875 Treia's Handcrafted Shroud - kirin-tor 150,000g Speed
  • 885 Marfisi's Giant Censer - lightbringer 600,000g Speed
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - quelthalas 350,000g Socket Leech
  • 875 Mir's Enthralling Grasp - sargeras 699,999g
  • 875 Marfisi's Giant Censer - sargeras 375,000g
  • 870 Sameed's Vision Ring - wyrmrest-accord 599,999g Socket Leech
Keep meaning to make the output more readable but haven't got round to rewriting my scanner yet >.<
Ring ilvl 870 with leech and socket on drakthul for 400k US
 
I'm actually surprised those 870/875's aren't MUCH higher prices, mostly because they are likely still upgrades for 95% of WoW Players, let alone 101 Twink items. Don't get me wrong, 500k sucks balls for some of those but still, I'd expect a million+ TBH. Once we get 1 or 2 Tiers deeper into Legion I'd wager all the 101 World Epics will drop in prices dramatically as Players will be sitting at an average iLvL over 900 (110's obv).

Depends on weather or not people catch onto their twink Value. I'm willing to bet at least a few people on each server are aware of this, and check AH regularly just to snipe em and flip em.
 

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